Hurricane ISABEL
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TROPICAL STORM ISABEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132003
1300Z SAT SEP 06 2003
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 34.0W AT 06/1300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 34.0W AT 06/1300Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 32.7W
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.0N 35.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.0N 37.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.5N 46.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 16.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 17.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 34.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
FORECASTER AVILA
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