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Hurricane FABIAN


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HURRICANE FABIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102003
0900Z SUN AUG 31 2003
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  51.9W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 100SE 100SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  51.9W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  51.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.5N  53.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.3N  55.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 20.1N  57.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 21.0N  59.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.4N  63.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 26.3N  65.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 29.5N  67.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  51.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
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