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Tropical Storm ERIKA


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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082003
0300Z FRI AUG 15 2003
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST FROM PORT O'CONNOR SOUTHWARD TO BROWNVILLE. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY MORNING FOR A
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA.
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
SOUTHWARD TO BOCA SANTA MARIA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  86.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  86.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  85.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.5N  89.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.5N  93.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.4N  97.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 26.3N  99.9W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.5N 104.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N  86.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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