Tropical Storm ERIKA
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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082003
0300Z FRI AUG 15 2003
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST FROM PORT O'CONNOR SOUTHWARD TO BROWNVILLE. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY MORNING FOR A
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
SOUTHWARD TO BOCA SANTA MARIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 86.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 86.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 85.5W
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.5N 89.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.5N 93.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.4N 97.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 26.3N 99.9W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.5N 104.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 86.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
FORECASTER STEWART
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