Tropical Storm ERIKA
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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082003
2100Z THU AUG 14 2003
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD THREATEN SOUTHERN TEXAS OR NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. CONSULT STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS IN YOUR AREA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 84.4W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 84.4W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 83.4W
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.0N 87.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.0N 92.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 26.0N 105.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 84.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
FORECASTER AVILA
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