Tropical Depression SIX

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062003
1500Z MON JUL 21 2003
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING FOR
MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE AND ADJACENT FRENCH ISLANDS...AND FOR
ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...ST KITTS AND NEVIS...AND FOR SABA AND
ST EUSTATIUS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  58.8W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  58.8W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  57.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.8N  62.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.9N  66.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.3N  70.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  30SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  30SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.0N  80.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  30SE  30SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 25.0N  84.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 28.0N  86.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N  58.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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