Hurricane PATRICIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD ELONGATED LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION AND
A COUPLE OF SMALL DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CELLS.  ALL AGENCIES
CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS "TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY".  INTENSITY GUIDANCE
MODELS SHOW A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER
RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY
UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASED ON A CENTER LOCATION NEAR THE EAST END
OF THE ELONGATED LOW.  THIS IS TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE NOGAPS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT MOTION...TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THE DEPRESSION TO BE EMBEDDED IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A VERY SLOW MOSTLY NORTHWARD
MOTION FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 16.2N 114.9W    25 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 16.6N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 17.2N 115.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 17.6N 115.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 18.5N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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