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Hurricane NORA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003
 
NORA CONTINUES WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SCATTEROMETER
PASSES...THE MOST RECENT AT 6Z...SUGGEST THAT WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 30
KT.  NORA APPEARS TO BE IN A STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE
SHEARING OUTFLOW OF OLAF.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG
OR EVEN INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FROM THE UPPER LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST OF NORA.  A CONTINUED SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH NORA MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS
THERE COULD BE BRIEF EPISODES OF CONVECTION.  NORA IS LIKELY TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW THIS AFTERNOON.
 
NORA HAS BEEN SHOVED SOUTHEASTWARD BY A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLIES COMING DOWN OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  ALL GUIDANCE
BENDS THE TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER-LOW OFF
BAJA BUILDS DOWNWARD TO 850 MB OR BELOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRACK OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS BUT AT A
SLOWER SPEED...AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK WITH THE
NORTHEAST TRACK OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 20.1N 112.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.1N 111.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 20.8N 110.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 21.8N 109.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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