ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003 NORA CONTINUES WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SCATTEROMETER PASSES...THE MOST RECENT AT 6Z...SUGGEST THAT WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 30 KT. NORA APPEARS TO BE IN A STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE SHEARING OUTFLOW OF OLAF. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OR EVEN INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FROM THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORA. A CONTINUED SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX IS THEREFORE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH NORA MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS THERE COULD BE BRIEF EPISODES OF CONVECTION. NORA IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW THIS AFTERNOON. NORA HAS BEEN SHOVED SOUTHEASTWARD BY A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES COMING DOWN OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ALL GUIDANCE BENDS THE TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER-LOW OFF BAJA BUILDS DOWNWARD TO 850 MB OR BELOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRACK OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS BUT AT A SLOWER SPEED...AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK WITH THE NORTHEAST TRACK OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 20.1N 112.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.1N 111.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 08/1200Z 20.8N 110.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 09/0000Z 21.8N 109.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 109.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC