Tropical Storm KEVIN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2003
 
AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CLOUD SWIRLS WERE
VISIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE QUESTION WAS...
WAS ONE OF THESE THE ACTUAL CENTER OR WERE THEY ROTATING AROUND A
BROADER CENTER.  ADDITIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION HAS NOT
REALLY ANSWERED THE QUESTION.  THE WESTERN MOST CENTER HAS
ACTUALLY MOVED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE EASTERN MOST IS JUST
ABOUT GONE.  TAFB AND SAB ALSO ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN
DETERMINING THE CENTER.  THEREFORE...THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
IS TAKEN IN THIS PACKAGE...WITH A BROADER CIRCULATION DETERMINING
THE INITIAL POSITION.
  
THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
HAS ALSO WEAKENED THE SYSTEM AND KEVIN HAS BEEN DOWN GRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS.
SHORTLY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS SUGGESTED BY ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
  
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/12.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS
THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF KEVIN.  THIS SHOULD STEER KEVIN
BASICALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS CAUSED BY A TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARD THE U. S.
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  SINCE KEVIN SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER AS
IT APPROACHES THE WEAKENESS...IT WILL LIKELY TURN MORE WESTWARD AS
LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES PREDOMINANT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 22.1N 115.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 22.8N 116.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 23.4N 118.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 24.0N 120.2W    25 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 24.2N 122.3W    25 KT
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 24.1N 124.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 24.1N 127.7W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW

 
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