Hurricane IGNACIO
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2003
FIRST-LIGHT VISUAL IMAGES DO NOT SHOW A DISTINCT CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND SURFACE
PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE AREA. EVEN IF THE CENTER
REMERGES OVER THE WATERS TO THE WEST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
BAJA...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY. IGNACIO SHOULD BECOME
A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS.
THE CENTER LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AROUND 3 KT.
IGNACIO REMAINS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING ASSOCIATED WITH
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION.
EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED FOR NOW...THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
BAJA.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/1500Z 26.3N 112.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 26.6N 112.9W 20 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 26.9N 113.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 29/0000Z 27.3N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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