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Tropical Depression NINE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2003

THE DEPRESSION IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS VERY CLOSE
TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.5 FROM TAFB...2.5 FROM SAB...AND 2.0 FROM
AFWA.  THE LATEST SSMI PASS AT 0406Z SUGGESTED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
SEEM TO BE DECREASING AND MAY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE
VERTICAL AND INTENSIFY. 
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 320/04. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN
CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE SYSTEM NOW SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING TO THIS AS
INDICATED BY THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AGAIN AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM INLAND UP THE BAJA
PENINSULA.
 
BECAUSE OF THE TRACK FORECAST UP THE BAJA...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
AFTER LANDFALL...IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...BECOMES A LITTLE DIFFICULT
BECAUSE OF THE WARM SEA OF CORTES TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
COOLER PACIFIC WATERS TO THE WEST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN
AVERAGE OF THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR A SYSTEM MOVING OVER WATER
AND A SYSTEM MOVING OVER LAND.

IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST THEN WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS
MAY BR REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND AS WELL AS LOCATIONS
FARTHER NORTH ON THE BAJA.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 21.2N 107.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 21.8N 108.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 22.6N 108.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 23.4N 109.6W    45 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 24.1N 110.4W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 25.4N 111.8W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 27.1N 113.2W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     28/0600Z 29.0N 114.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 
 
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