ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2003 THE DEPRESSION IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.5 FROM TAFB...2.5 FROM SAB...AND 2.0 FROM AFWA. THE LATEST SSMI PASS AT 0406Z SUGGESTED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST SEEM TO BE DECREASING AND MAY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE VERTICAL AND INTENSIFY. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 320/04. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN CENTRAL MEXICO. THE SYSTEM NOW SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING TO THIS AS INDICATED BY THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AGAIN AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM INLAND UP THE BAJA PENINSULA. BECAUSE OF THE TRACK FORECAST UP THE BAJA...THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL...IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...BECOMES A LITTLE DIFFICULT BECAUSE OF THE WARM SEA OF CORTES TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE COOLER PACIFIC WATERS TO THE WEST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN AVERAGE OF THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR A SYSTEM MOVING OVER WATER AND A SYSTEM MOVING OVER LAND. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST THEN WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BR REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND AS WELL AS LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH ON THE BAJA. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 21.2N 107.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 21.8N 108.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 22.6N 108.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 23.4N 109.6W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/0600Z 24.1N 110.4W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/0600Z 25.4N 111.8W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/0600Z 27.1N 113.2W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 28/0600Z 29.0N 114.5W 20 KT...INLAND NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC