Tropical Storm FELICIA
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2003
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND ON IR IMAGES. A 1259Z TRMM PASS SHOWS THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER TO THE NORTH AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION. A
SLIGHT STRAIGHTENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE WEAKENING OVER COOL WATERS
BEGINS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
FELICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE STEERING PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
AND THIS IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 15.7N 117.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 16.0N 119.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 122.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 17.0N 125.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 128.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 19.5N 134.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 20.5N 138.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 24/1200Z 22.5N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
NNNN