Tropical Storm ANDRES

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2003
 
VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SEEM TO HAVE DELIVERED A LETHAL BLOW
TO ANDRES.  THE CYCLONE IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
NO SIGN OF A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP SIMILAR TO THE LAST THREE NIGHTS. 
THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED MOSTLY 25-30 KT WINDS...WITH ONLY
ONE SUSPECT 35 KT WIND.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT
FROM AFWA...30 KT FROM TAFB...AND TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY FROM SAB. 
BASED ON THE ABOVE...ANDRES IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT DEPRESSION. 
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW
IN 24-36 HR.  WHILE THE REMNANT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 72
HR...NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM THAT LONG
AND IT COULD WELL WEAKEN TO AN EASTERLY WAVE BEFORE THEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/14...AS THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS MOSTLY CONCEALED BY CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 14.9N 135.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 137.3W    25 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 139.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 142.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 15.0N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 15.0N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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