Tropical Storm ODETTE

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TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2003
 
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON NIGHTIME IMAGERY BUT IS LIKELY
NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  THE DEEP
CONVECTION WITH ODETTE LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE
CENTER.  WINDS OF 30 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM NEAR SANTO DOMINGO
FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT HIGHER WINDS
STILL EXIST ELSEWHERE.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM AROUND 1200 UTC.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/12...AND ODETTE APPEARS TO BE
ACCELERATING AS EXPECTED.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE
CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE ALOFT ODETTE IS EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.  ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE ACCELERATES ODETTE NORTHEASTWARD BUT AT VARYING SPEEDS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FASTER GFS/GFDL AND THE
SLOWER UKMET/NOGAPS SOLUTIONS.  ODETTE WILL BE COMING UNDER STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WILL BE GOVERNED LARGELY BY HOW WELL THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERTICALLY
COUPLED.
 
ODETTE IS LIKELY TO BECOME ENTANGLED WITHIN THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
ZONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS.  MOST
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS
STRENGTH DURING THIS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 19.4N  70.2W    40 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 21.2N  68.4W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 24.0N  65.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 26.7N  60.4W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 29.0N  55.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/0600Z 36.0N  44.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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