Tropical Storm LARRY

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TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003
 
ALTHOUGH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO FIX THE 850 MB
CENTER OFFSHORE JUST BEFORE 18Z...THEY REPORTED THAT THE SURFACE
CENTER WAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND INLAND.  BY 19Z THE 850 MB
CENTER WAS ALSO INLAND.  A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DID
REPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 37 KT...SO WE NEED TO HANG ON TO LARRY AS A
TROPICAL STORM JUST A LITTLE LONGER.  IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO
LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE AN ERRATIC DRIFT...GENERALLY TO
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.  THE GUIDANCE IS BECOMING LESS ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT A RE-EMERGENCE INTO THE PACIFIC...WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE
GFS KEEPING THE 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER OVER LAND.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION...RATHER THAN REGENERATION.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 18.2N  93.8W    35 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 17.7N  93.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 17.1N  94.1W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 16.5N  94.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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