Tropical Storm HENRI

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003

HENRI CONTINUES TO HAVE A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER...WITH VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROADER CIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT LOCATION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
SATELLITE FIXES AND A SHIP REPORT JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER.  WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE
SYSTEM...YET THE SHIPS MODEL INSISTS THAT HENRI CAN BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM IN THE FACE OF THIS SHEAR.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A LITTLE STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST.  ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT HENRI MAY LOSE SOME...OR
ALL...OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH A
NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE.

INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 045/5.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
HENRI'S EASTWARD PROGRESS WILL GET BLOCKED IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE TO NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE.  ACCORDINGLY THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT
IN THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME FRAME.  IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF HENRI
WILL BE LEFT BY THAT TIME HOWEVER.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 31.6N  77.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 32.5N  76.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 33.5N  75.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 34.2N  73.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 34.6N  71.7W    35 KT
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 34.9N  69.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 35.0N  68.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     12/1800Z 35.0N  68.0W    25 KT 
 
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