Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003
 
FABIAN IS MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE...USING A HAND HELD ANEMOMETER BECAUSE THE
NORMAL WIND MEASURING EQUIPMENT WAS DESTROYED...WAS 50 TO 60 KTS. 
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FABIAN HAS HIT BERMUDA AS A
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
 
FABIAN SHOULD BE AFFECTING BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SINCE
IT IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS. FABIAN
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ALL GUIDANCE IS
NICELY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER COOL WATERS.
 
FABIAN SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...AS USUAL...IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF
FABIAN WILL WEAKEN OR BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND IT
IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
TRANSITION FROM TROPICAL TO EXTRATROPICAL.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 34.1N  64.1W   100 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 36.2N  62.2W    95 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 38.6N  58.7W    90 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 41.3N  54.7W    80 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 43.5N  49.5W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 48.0N  43.0W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 58.0N  33.0W    80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0000Z 59.4N  31.6W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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