Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2003
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS VERY IMPRESSIVE ON VISIBLE IMAGES WITH A VERY
DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 944 MB IN THE LAST RECON FIX.  HOWEVER...
T-NUMBERS ARE LOWER AND THE MAX WINDS MEASURED SO FAR BY AN AIR
FORCE PLANE AND THE TWO NOAA P3 INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS DECREASED TO 105 KNOTS. HOWEVER...FABIAN HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO
REGAIN SOME STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND THE SHEAR DECREASES
ONCE THE UPPER-LOW TO ITS NORTHWEST WEAKENS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER FABIAN DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.
 
THERE ARE NO NEW CHANGES TO REPORT WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK
FORECAST. FABIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND SOON WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN
WHICH FAVORS RECURVATURE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FABIAN IS
THEN EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST PASSING
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS GUNA AND GUNS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 22.9N  62.9W   105 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 24.0N  64.2W   105 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 26.0N  65.5W   110 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 28.5N  66.5W   115 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 31.5N  66.5W   115 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 37.0N  63.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 45.0N  53.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     08/1800Z 55.0N  37.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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