Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2003
 
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 102-115 KT...THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 130 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL...WHICH STILL
SUPPORTS 115-120 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE LAST EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE
WAS 945 MB. TWO NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A
RESEARCH MISSION IN FABIAN...AND REPORTED 105 KT AT THE SURFACE
FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...
INSTRUMENT IN THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL.  HOWEVER...THE AIRCRAFT HAVE
NOT SAMPLED THE STRONGER NORTHEAST QUADRANT...YET. INTERESTINGLY...
THE INTENSITY HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSTANT FOR THE LAST 36 HOURS. 
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN AN EXPANSION OF THE CORE AND
OUTER CIRCULATION. THE EYE DIAMETER TODAY IS ABOUT 30 NM...COMPARED
TO 20 NM YESTERDAY.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT FABIAN MAY HAVE SOME
INTENSIFICATION LEFT IN IT IF THE CURRENT EYEWALL CONTRACTS. SUCH
EYEWALL DYNAMICS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST HOWEVER...WHICH CALLS FOR LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
 
AS EXPECTED...THE STORM HEADING CONTINUES TO BEND TO THE RIGHT.  THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/9.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST THINKING OVER THE PAST TWO OR THREE DAYS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS MODELS...A COMBINATION THAT CONTINUES TO PERFORM
EXCEPTIONALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
IN THE FORECAST ACCELERATION BEYOND 72 HOURS...AND THEREFORE THE
FORECAST ERRORS AT THE LONGER RANGES COULD BE QUITE LARGE.  
 
ALL INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
FABIAN.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 20.7N  61.1W   120 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 21.4N  62.3W   120 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 22.7N  63.5W   120 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 24.1N  64.7W   115 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 26.0N  66.0W   110 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 31.0N  67.0W   105 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 38.0N  64.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 46.0N  56.0W    70 KT
 
 
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