Tropical Storm ERIKA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2003
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERIKA HAS REACHED THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE PAST 6 HR.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE AND TAMPICO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM MONTERREY AND SALTILLO INDICATE WINDS OF 20 KT OR
LESS.  THIS EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT ERIKA IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/12.  THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
ERIKA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...
POSSIBLY REACHING THE PACIFIC IN 24-36 HR.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ERIKA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO DUE TO THE REMAINING UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE.  PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS
FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 24.8N 100.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 24.4N 102.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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