Tropical Depression SIX

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/20.  THE GFS SHOWS A MOSTLY
WESTWARD MOTION WITH A POSITION IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN FIVE
DAYS.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AND POSITIONS IN THE
BAHAMAS-SOUTH FLORIDA AREA IN FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
A COMPROMISE BLEND OF THESE EXTREMES.
 
WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF 20 KNOTS...THE SYSTEM MAY NOT HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED.  THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INCREASED THE WIND SPEED
TO 70 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  ONLY THE PURE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THAT MUCH INTENSIFICATION.  THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
SHIPS BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO ONLY 46 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS AND 53
KNOTS IN 5 DAYS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FAR LESS AGGRESSIVE. 
STILL..THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE WARM.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 60 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS AND 65 KNOTS
THEREAFTER.
 
SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...NONE OF
THE WEATHER SERVICES OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 13.0N  50.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 13.4N  53.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 14.0N  56.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 14.9N  60.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 16.1N  64.4W    50 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 18.0N  72.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N  78.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     25/1200Z 23.0N  84.0W    65 KT
 
 
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