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Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE


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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003
 
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE STORM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS AND FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 991 MB AND
THEN BACK TO 992 MB. THE HIGHEST WIND IN THIS FLIGHT CONTINUES TO
BE THE 69 KNOTS RECORDED EARLIER TODAY. A PEAK WIND OF 68 KNOTS HAS
JUST BEEN MEASURED. DUE TO THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND PRESSURE
DROP...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.
 
THE SHEAR HAS NOT RELAX...SO THE CURRENT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION
MAY BE ONLY TEMPORARY AND SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY. CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN FIGHTING THE SHEAR AND A SMALL
RELAXATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING CLAUDETTE TO
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ONE OF THESE BURSTS OF CONVECTION.
 
CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
CENTER MOVING IN AND OUT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. STEERING CURRENTS
ARE WEAK AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PROVIDE A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION.
GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED AND CONTINUES TO BRING CLAUDETTE SLOWLY
TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS OR NORTHEASTERN MEXICAN COASTS.
 
CLAUDETTE IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THEREFORE THE NECESSITY FOR WARNINGS
HAS BEEN DELAYED.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 25.7N  92.3W    55 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 26.0N  92.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 26.5N  94.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 26.6N  95.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 26.7N  97.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 26.7N  99.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 26.7N 102.0W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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