Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003
 
DESPITE THE PERSISTENT UNFAVORABLE SHEAR...TENACIOUS CLAUDETTE HAS
BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IT HAS CONTINUED
TO PRODUCE INTERMETTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 1003 MB...THE LOWEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY A PLANE IN
TWO DAYS. HOWEVER... IT WENT BACK UP TO 1005 MB...AS WE SPEAK. THIS
SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KNOTS. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS AT ALL THAT SHEAR IS RELAXING AT THIS TIME...AND IN FACT...
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION AT THIS
TIME. GLOBAL MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER CLAUDETTE. HOWEVER...THEY DO FORECAST WEAKER SOUTHWESTERLIES
OVER THE STORM IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE OUTPUT OF THE SHIPS MODEL THAT DECREASES THE SHEAR FROM 20 DOWN
TO 12 KNOTS BY 36 HOURS. IF CLAUDETTE SURVIVES THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE CYCLONE COULD BE AT
OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. 
 
AFTER THE LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTH TODAY...CLAUDETTE IS BACK ON
TRACK. 500 MB DATA AT 00Z INDICATE THAT A TROUGH PASSED TO THE
NORTH EARLIER TODAY AND A RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE CLAUDETTE TO MOVE ON A
MORE WESTERLY TRACK. IN FACT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALREADY 280
DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. ONCE CLAUDETTE BECOMES TRAPPED SOUTH OF THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF
DUE WEST...VERY SLOWLY. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 48 TO 60
HOURS AND DISSIPATION BY DAY 4. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 25.1N  91.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 25.7N  93.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 26.0N  94.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 26.0N  95.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 26.0N  96.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 26.0N  99.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 26.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND

 
 
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