Tropical Storm ANA
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TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2003
EVEN THOUGH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PERSISTS OVER ANA...THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 45 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS DISSIPATION
BY 72 HOURS UNDER 40 KT SHEAR WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS HOLD ON
TO A 40 TO 45 KT STORM. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT ANA WILL MERGE
WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AFTER
72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
WITH A FORECAST OF SLIGHT WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/15. ANA REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WESTERLY
CURRENT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 72
HOURS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ANA WILL AFFECT THE AZORES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN 4 OR 5
DAYS.
THE 34-KT WIND SPEED RADII ARE INCREASED TO 200 N MI IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON SHIP REPORTS. THESE RADII ARE REDUCED TO A
SMALLER 150 N MI IN 36 HOURS.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 29.8N 55.7W 45 KTS
12HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 53.2W 45 KTS
24HR VT 23/1800Z 31.5N 49.8W 40 KTS
36HR VT 24/0600Z 31.9N 46.7W 40 KTS
48HR VT 24/1800Z 32.1N 44.3W 40 KTS
72HR VT 25/1800Z 32.5N 38.0W 35 KTS
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