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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161134
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Gulf of California:
An area of low pressure over the central Gulf of California is 
bringing heavy rains to portions of the Mexican state of Sonora.  
Although the development chances appear to be decreasing since the 
system is expected to move inland later this morning, heavy rains 
will likely continue across portions of the state of Sonora 
during the next day or so, and could cause isolated flooding.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern 
Mexico within the next few days.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for some gradual development, and this system could become 
a tropical depression early next week while it moves slowly 
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
well to the south of the southern tip of the Baja California 
Peninsula.  Upper-level winds are forecast to be unfavorable for 
significant development through the weekend as the system moves 
westward at 10 to 15 mph.  However, some gradual development of this 
system is possible early next week when it reaches the western 
portion of the east Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi