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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171753
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 17 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the south-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is showing signs of 
organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form this weekend or early next week as it moves westward 
at at 10 to 15 mph across the western part of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD15-E):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with the remnants 
of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. Environmental conditions appear 
only marginally conducive for some development of this system as it 
moves gradually westward, remaining east-southeast of the Hawaiian 
Islands. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue with a tropical wave 
located several hundred miles south of southern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this 
weekend or early next week while it moves gradually northwestward 
and then northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Wegman/Mahoney/Blake/Snell