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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152310
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Fifteen-E, located well west-southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern 
Mexico by the end of the week.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for some gradual development by the weekend, and this 
system could become a tropical depression early next week while it 
moves slowly northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Gulf of California:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a 
small area of low pressure that is moving northward over the central 
Gulf of California.  While this system has only a slight chance of 
formation before it moves inland on Wednesday over the state of 
Sonora, periods of heavy rain and isolated flooding are possible 
over that state during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Western Portion of the Eastern Pacific:
A westward-moving tropical wave is producing disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms well to the south of the southern tip of the Baja 
California Peninsula.  Upper-level winds are forecast to be 
unfavorable for significant development through the weekend as the 
system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.  Some gradual development of 
this system is possible early next week when it reaches the western 
portion of the east Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen