000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081551
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jul 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 84W to the north of 03N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
the wave axis.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 108W, from 03N to 16N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the wave axis S of 10N.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 134W from 02N to 16N, moving 
westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N to 13N between 133W and 137W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 04N129W. The ITCZ is
analyzed W of 140W. Scattered moderate convection is active
within 200 nm on either side of the monsoon trough and W of 90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong NW winds and 6-7 ft seas are noted in recent 
satellite data off Baja California Norte between high pressure 
west of the area and lower pressure over northwest Mexico. 
Farther south, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are active 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to 
moderate breezes and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except 1-4 
ft seas across the Gulf of California. Thunderstorms are active 
inland from Jalisco to Sonora, and gusty winds may be occurring 
near the coast.

For the forecast, the ridging will persist off Baja California 
through today, with lower pressure inland over northwest Mexico.
This pattern will support fresh to strong NW winds off Baja 
California Norte through tonight, with rough seas in NW swell 
near Guadalupe Island into Thu. These winds will diminish Thu, 
as low pressure moves off the Pacific into the lower Colorado 
River Valley. This will result in fresh to strong S winds and 
rough seas late Thu into Fri over the Gulf of California. Fresh 
to strong northerly gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through the week. Lowering pressure across the 
tropical eastern Pacific will induce fresh to strong winds and 
occasionally rough seas offshore southern Mexico by the weekend.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds persist across the Papagayo 
region and Nicaragua, extending offshore to near 90W. Seas are 
estimated to be 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere to 
the N of 08N. Moderate N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama 
downwind to near 07N, with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate SE winds are 
across the offshore waters of the Galapagos Islands, where seas 
are 5-7 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the 
remainder of the waters, along with 4-6 ft mainly in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Papagayo region through late Sun, mainly at night and
into the morning hours. Cross equatorial SW swell will move 
through the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through 
Wed, with seas peaking around 9 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes 
and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Looking 
ahead, lowering pressure across the tropical eastern Pacific will
induce fresh to strong winds and occasionally rough seas 
offshore El Salvador and Guatemala by Sun.  

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough, the remnant of Douglas, is along 139W from 20N
to 29N. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of 
15N, supporting moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N 
and SW swell. Fresh NE winds and seas 7-8 ft are also noted 
farther S ahead of the tropical wave near 134W. Gentle to 
moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Long period SW swell to 8 
ft is reaching 05N between 90W and 120W. Combined seas are mainly
5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas will accompany the
tropical wave near 134W at it moves westward at 10-15 kt, past 
140W by late Fri. Farther N, swell of 8-9 ft will persist north 
of 25N to the E of 125W through Fri. Farther S, large swell to 
7-8 ft will persist south of 05N or so between 95W and 120W 
through Fri.

$$
ERA