870
AXPZ20 KNHC 120315
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jun 12 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP93): An area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms located several hundred nautical miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 10.5N97.5W is associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Current associated winds are
up to around 20 kt, while seas are building to around 8 ft.
Nearby convection is described below. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form late this week or this weekend
while it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours, and a high
chance through the next 7 days. Regardless of development, expect
increasing winds and seas with this feature. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to broad 1011 mb low
pressure near 10.5N97.5W to 12N105W, then resumes southwest of
the remnant low of Cosme near 13N115W to 10N130W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 85W and 90W, and
from 12N to 17N between 90W and 105W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section for information on a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 10.5N97.5W.
The remnant low of Cosme is located just southwest of Socorro
Island near 17N113W at 1008 mb. No significant convection is
present. Remnant winds are estimated to be 20 kt, mainly on the
SE side of the center, with seas to 8 ft. Otherwise, weak
ridging extends from a 1030 mb high centered well NW of the area
near 38N149W to offshore Baja California. Winds are moderate or
weaker, including in the Gulf of California, with seas of 5 to 7
ft in the open waters, and 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, other than the broad area of low pressure with
tropical cyclone formation possibility mentioned above, the
remnant low of Cosme will continue to spin down with associated
winds and seas diminishing and subsiding by Thu morning. Elsewhere,
little change in winds and seas is forecast, except offshore
Baja California Norte where seas may build locally to rough in
fresh NW-N swell late in the weekend, along with freshening winds.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop in the Gulf of
California early next week as troughing deepens over the Baja
California Peninsula.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Winds are mainly gentle to moderate across the offshore waters.
Seas are 5-7 ft in S swell. Widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are across much of the waters from Colombia
northward as described above.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
will persist across the region through tonight. From Thu into Fri
night, an enhanced monsoon trough should cause increasing SW
winds as well as showers and thunderstorms over the Central
American forecast waters. Looking ahead, quiescent conditions are
likely for much of the weekend. Winds may increase again south of
the monsoon trough offshore southern Colombia and from Ecuador
to the Galapagos Islands late in the weekend and into early
next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please read the Special Features section for information on a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 10.5N97.5W.
Weak ridging dominates the waters north of 15N, and this pattern
is supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds west of 120W, with
5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell. S swell of 8 to 10 ft
is reaching as far north as the Equator between 105W and 120W.
Elsewhere fresh SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough
between 90W and 110W, into the area of broad low pressure
described in the Special Features section (EP93). Seas may
reaching 8 ft near 06N95W south of the broad low. Seas are 4 to 6
ft in SW swell elsewhere east of 120W.
In the forecast, other than the broad area of low pressure with
tropical cyclone formation possibility mentioned above, the
remnant low of Cosme will continue to spin down with associated
winds and seas diminishing and subsiding by Thu morning. Little
change in winds and seas is expected elsewhere through the
weekend, except across the north central waters where freshening
winds off southern California will build rough seas into our
area. Winds may increase to moderate to fresh across much of the
open waters early next week as the pressure gradient between the
possible tropical cyclone and building high pressure west of it
tightens.
$$
Christensen