000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030745
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Nov 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A reinforcing cold front is 
moving across the Gulf of America. In its wake, a tight pressure
gradient in southeastern Mexico is bringing gale-force gap winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Ship with call ID " WELQ"
moving to the southeast reported 35 to 40 kt winds just a few
hours near 13.5N95.5W. Rough seas are with these winds. These 
seas are expected to reach very rough ranges through Tue. The 
gale force winds are expected to prevail through Tue night, 
however strong to near gale force winds will gradually diminish 
through early on Thu. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in north to northeast 
swell are expected to spread south-southwestward to near 09N110W
by Tue night.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from central Colombia west-
northwestward to northern Costa Rica, and to 11N86W to 08N97W to
09N110W and to 10N124W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 
beyond 11N140W. Numerous moderate to convection is within 180 nm 
north of the trough between 104W-107W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough 
between 111W-113W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
south of the trough between 97W and 98.5W and between 113W-115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on an ongoing 
Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event.

Long-period NW swell is moving through the offshore waters of 
Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro. An altimeter satellite
data pass from 02Z last night indicates seas of 8 to 10 ft over 
these waters, with the highest of the seas north of Punta 
Eugenia. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell are over the offshore
waters from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro.  Elsewhere, a
rather weak pressure gradient across the region is generally 
allowing for moderate or lighter northwest to north winds and 
moderate seas, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California 
as noted in earlier altimeter satellite data passes.

For the forecast, the long-period NW swell will gradually 
subside through Tue. A second set of large NW swell is forecast 
to enter the waters N of Punta Eugenia late Thu, and spread 
through the remainder waters offshore of Baja California through 
Fri night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are ongoing in the Gulf of 
Papagayo along with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate SW to W 
winds and moderate seas are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough 
across the Central America offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S 
to SW winds are over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands as seen scatterometer satellite date from last night. 
These winds become SE to S in direction west of 90W. Moderate 
seas are over these waters as indicated by earlier altimeter 
satellite data passes.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds and moderate seas 
are expected to pulse across the Papagayo region through Thu. The
Tehuantepec gap wind event will result in moderate N to NE winds
and moderate to rough seas in the far western offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador through Tue night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is the main feature over the eastern Pacific 
subtropical waters. Long-period NW swell continues to spread 
across the waters north of about 18N and and west of 116W. The 
swell is leading to rough seas. The gradient in place is allowing 
for moderate or lighter winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft elsewhere
north and south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough west of 110W as seen 
in the most recent altimeter satellite data passes over these
waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to be the main 
feature over the waters west of about 115W through midweek.
The NW swell will gradually subside through Tue. A cold front is
expected to approach 30N140W on Tue night, preceded by fresh to 
strong southwest winds and rough seas. Otherwise, a broad area of
low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Baja
California Peninsula is producing limited shower and 
thunderstorm activity as described above in the ITCZ/Monsoon 
Trough section. The system is moving westward into an 
unfavorable environment, and development is no longer expected.

$$
Aguirre