870 
AXPZ20 KNHC 120315
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jun 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP93): An area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms located several hundred nautical miles 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 10.5N97.5W is associated 
with a broad area of low pressure. Current associated winds are 
up to around 20 kt, while seas are building to around 8 ft. 
Nearby convection is described below. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form late this week or this weekend 
while it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of 
tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours, and a high 
chance through the next 7 days. Regardless of development, expect
increasing winds and seas with this feature. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to broad 1011 mb low 
pressure near 10.5N97.5W to 12N105W, then resumes southwest of 
the remnant low of Cosme near 13N115W to 10N130W. The ITCZ 
extends from 10N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 85W and 90W, and 
from 12N to 17N between 90W and 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 10.5N97.5W.

The remnant low of Cosme is located just southwest of Socorro  
Island near 17N113W at 1008 mb. No significant convection is 
present. Remnant winds are estimated to be 20 kt, mainly on the 
SE side of the center, with seas to 8 ft. Otherwise, weak 
ridging extends from a 1030 mb high centered well NW of the area
near 38N149W to offshore Baja California. Winds are moderate or 
weaker, including in the Gulf of California, with seas of 5 to 7 
ft in the open waters, and 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, other than the broad area of low pressure with
tropical cyclone formation possibility mentioned above, the 
remnant low of Cosme will continue to spin down with associated 
winds and seas diminishing and subsiding by Thu morning. Elsewhere,
little change in winds and seas is forecast, except offshore 
Baja California Norte where seas may build locally to rough in 
fresh NW-N swell late in the weekend, along with freshening winds.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop in the Gulf of 
California early next week as troughing deepens over the Baja 
California Peninsula.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are mainly gentle to moderate across the offshore waters. 
Seas are 5-7 ft in S swell. Widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are across much of the waters from Colombia 
northward as described above.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist across the region through tonight. From Thu into Fri
night, an enhanced monsoon trough should cause increasing SW 
winds as well as showers and thunderstorms over the Central 
American forecast waters. Looking ahead, quiescent conditions are
likely for much of the weekend. Winds may increase again south of
the monsoon trough offshore southern Colombia and from Ecuador 
to the Galapagos Islands late in the weekend  and into early 
next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 10.5N97.5W.

Weak ridging dominates the waters north of 15N, and this pattern
is supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds west of 120W, with
5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of NW and S swell. S swell of 8 to 10 ft
is reaching as far north as the Equator between 105W and 120W.
Elsewhere fresh SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough
between 90W and 110W, into the area of broad low pressure
described in the Special Features section (EP93). Seas may 
reaching 8 ft near 06N95W south of the broad low. Seas are 4 to 6
ft in SW swell elsewhere east of 120W.

In the forecast, other than the broad area of low pressure with 
tropical cyclone formation possibility mentioned above, the 
remnant low of Cosme will continue to spin down with associated 
winds and seas diminishing and subsiding by Thu morning. Little 
change in winds and seas is expected elsewhere through the 
weekend, except across the north central waters where freshening 
winds off southern California will build rough seas into our 
area. Winds may increase to moderate to fresh across much of the 
open waters early next week as the pressure gradient between the 
possible tropical cyclone and building high pressure west of it 
tightens.

$$
Christensen