000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072206
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 07 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Pacific Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1004 mb (Invest
EP92) is near 14N100W, or about 150 nm off the coast of southern
Mexico. satellite imagery shows that numerous moderate to strong
convection continues to become more organized from 10N to 17N 
between 93W and 101W. Strong to gale force winds and seas of 8 to
12 ft are within 120 nm of the coast of western Oaxaca and 
southeastern Guerrero. Although the system does not yet appear to
have a well-defined circulation, further development is 
anticipated and a tropical depression or tropical storm will 
likely form later today or tonight. The system is forecast to 
move west-northwestward just off the coast of Mexico, and will
possibly reach near Socorro Island early next week. Locally 
heavy rains are possible along portions of the southwestern coast
of Mexico during the next couple of days, and interests there 
should monitor the progress of this system. Gale conditions and 
rough to very rough seas are forecast for the offshore waters of 
southern and western Mexico through early Mon. For additional 
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. This system has a
high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 
hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
A low pressure system (Invest EP91) is located about 520 nm 
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico near 10N109W 
with a a pressure of 1007 mb. satellite imagery shows
disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
from 07N to 13N between 107W and 112W. Seas to 8 ft are within 
about 150 nm to the southwest of the low pressure as indicated
by the most recent altimeter satellite data that sampled that 
part of the area. Gradual development of this system is still 
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this 
weekend or early next week while it moves slowly northward to 
northwestward. This system has a high chance of becoming a 
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the 
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to
across southern Costa Rica, then to 10N84W to 14N100W to 10N111W
and to 07N126W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues 
to 08N136W. Aside from convection associated with Invest EP91 and 
EP92, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
60 nm south of the trough between 123W-125W, and within 30 nm
south of the ITCZ between 139W-136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on two
areas of low pressure with potential for tropical cyclone 
development.

A weak pressure pattern in place is allowing for generally 
gentle to moderate northwest to north winds offshore Baja 
California, with occasional fresh winds between Punta Eugenia
and Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere off 
southern Mexico and in the Gulf of California. Combined seas are 
4 to 6 ft off Baja California primarily in NW swell, and 3 to 5 
ft primarily in long-period southwest swell off southern Mexico,
with the exception of the strong winds related to Invest EP92 as
described above under Special Features. Seas of 3 ft are over 
the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the main issue will be the potential for a
tropical depression or tropical storm to form off southern 
Mexico described in the Special Features section. Expect fresh to
strong winds with rough seas over the offshore waters off 
western Oaxaca and southeastern Guerrero late this afternoon
and evening, with the range of these seas of 8 to 12 ft late
this afternoon and into this evening, building to 10 to 15 ft
tonight.

These adverse marine conditions will expand westward across the 
offshore waters toward Cabo Corrientes through early next week 
as low pressure farther to the south off the coast possibly 
becomes a tropical depression. Mariners should continue to 
monitor the latest statements from the National Hurricane Center 
on the possible tropical cyclone development, and plan their
routes accordingly to avoid the adverse marine conditions.

Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in south to 
southwest swell are expected elsewhere outside the impacted 
waters of the Special Feature low pressure (Invest EP91) through 
the weekend. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late 
next week south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system as 
it moves west-northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient remains over the area resulting
generally in gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the 
monsoon trough, and light to gentle winds to the north of it. 
Cross-equatorial southwest swell is producing moderate seas 
across the offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua will diminish Mon.
Mainly gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. 
Moderate seas in cross equatorial swell will subside early next 
week. Abundant deep tropical moisture will persist across the 
region maintaining a high likelihood of additional showers and 
thunderstorms for the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

1028 mb high pressure is located well north of the area near 
41N141W. A rather persistent surface trough extends from a 1014 
mb low that is north of the area at 35N127W, south-southwestward
to 30N124W and to near 25N128W. No significant convection is 
occurring with this feature. Seas are reaching 8 ft along 10N 
between 135W and 140W. Gentle to moderate trades along with seas 
of 5 to 7 ft due to a mix of north and southwest swell are 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, a trough is analyzed over the far western part 
of the area from 10N137W to 05N138.5W. Latest scatterometer 
satellite data reveals moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
north and northeast of the trough to near 15N and east to 132W.
The gradient between the trough and the high pressure to the 
north should keep these winds in place through the early part 
of the upcoming week even as the trough shifts west of 140W. The
seas to 8 ft in north to northeast swell with these winds will
linger into early next week. 

$$
Aguirre