000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031531
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jan 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell NW Waters: A powerful and complex 987 mb low 
pressure system is centered well north of the area near 42N132W. 
Storm force winds near the low center continue to support very 
large NW swell reaching the area waters as far south as 25N and 
as far east as 130W, with seas near 30N138W reaching 16 ft. This
swell will continue to propagate to the southeast this weekend, 
reaching waters north of 24N and west of 125W bt tonight, while 
only slowly subsiding. By late Sun, seas will fall below 12 ft. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N88W to 06N101W. 
The ITCZ continues from 06N101W to 09N120W to beyond 11N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N east of 
90W and from 10N to 20N between 115W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a 1018 mb high west of Baja 
California Sur near 25N120W and a surface trough along the 
eastern shores of the Gulf of California is leading to fresh NW 
winds from the southern Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes. 
Elsewhere, gentle breezes and moderate seas primarily in NW swell
prevail.

For the forecast, the winds off Baja California Sur and the
southern Gulf of California will diminish through tonight as the
high pressure weakens. Long period NW swell will bring rough 
seas to the Baja California offshore waters tonight through Mon. 
Farther south, expect strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
tonight into Mon, in the wake of a cold front moving through 
eastern Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting fresh NE to E 
gap winds in the Papagayo region, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 
Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo Sun
through Tue. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate
seas will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell north of 25N and west of 125W leading to very rough
combined seas through Sun night.

Fresh winds and large NW swell follow a cold front reaching from
30N123W to 21N132W. Farther south, fresh E to SE winds and seas
to 8 ft persist south of 10N and west of 135W. Gentle to moderate
breezes and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active from 10N to 20N 
between 115W and 135W, near a pair of surface troughs associated
with a sharp mid to upper level trough situated to the northwest. 

For the forecast, the cold front will gradually weaken as it 
continues to move eastward over the waters north of 23N today. A
reinforcing front will follow, but also weaken as it moves 
eastward toward 120W by Mon. Looking ahead, a third front will 
enter the northern waters Mon and approach 120W through late Tue.
These fronts will disrupt the standard subtropical ridge north 
of 20N, maintaining gentle to moderate breezes across the region 
through early next week. 

$$
Konarik