000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040937
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell NW Waters: Very large NW swell persists over
the waters north of 25N and west of 125W, associated with a gale
center well north of the region. The swell will subside below 12
ft by late today.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 05N95W to 06N100W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 10N125W to beyond 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N east of 
85W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong northerly gap winds are starting over the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec, associated with high pressure building north of 
the area. Farther north, a dissipating cold front is moving past
Guadalupe Island, but will likely dissipate this morning before 
it reaches the coast of Baja California. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicated fresh NW winds off Baja California Sur
south of Cabo San Lazaro, but these winds may be diminishing
currently ahead of the dissipating front. Gentle to moderate
breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere, except slight seas
over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the gap winds across Tehuantepec will persist
through tonight, then diminish as high pressure north of the area
weakens. A weak pressure gradient will support gentle to 
moderate breezes elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. Long 
period NW swell will bring rough seas to the Baja California 
offshore waters through Mon, with moderate seas elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting moderate NE to E
gap winds in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo Sun
night through Tue. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to 
moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell north of 25N and west of 125W leading to very rough
combined seas through late today.

An upper trough persist along roughly 130W, supporting fresh 
winds and seas to 9 ft from 12N to 15N between 122W and 128W, as
confirmed by recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite passes.
Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, a front approaching the area from the north
will move across the waters north of 20N late today and tonight,
then will dissipate near the coast of Baja California Mon. 
Looking ahead, a third front will enter the northern waters Mon 
and approach 120W through late Tue. These fronts will disrupt the
standard subtropical ridge north of 20N, maintaining gentle to 
moderate breezes across the region through early next week. 

$$
Christensen