000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130354
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jun 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E is centered near 11.9N 100.6W
at 13/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are 8 to 9 ft between the center of
the system and the SW coast of Mexico and 8 to 11 ft within 120
nm SE quadrant of the center. Clusters of scattered moderate to
strong convection extend from 07N to 18N between 93W and 110W. A
northwest general motion is expected to continue for the next 
couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by 
Sunday. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.
The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday and 
continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the 
coast of southwestern Mexico. Four-E is expected to steadily 
weaken Sun through Mon as it approaches the Revillagigedo 
Islands, and moves over cooler waters. Please refer to the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the 
latest Four-E NHC Forecast Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to Potential Tropical
Cyclone Four-E near 11.9N 100.6W, then resumes near 15N116W to 
11N127W. The ITCZ extends from 11N127W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from
01N northward and east of 93W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Four-E, located several hundred nautical miles 
south of Acapulco, Mexico.

The remnant low of Cosme is located just southwest of Socorro  
Island near 17N109W at 1010 mb, and is moving slowly toward the 
east. No convection is present. Elsewhere, a broad and weak 
ridge extends from a 1030 mb high centered well NW of the area 
near 38N144W to just west of Guadalupe Island. Gentle to locally  
moderate NW winds prevail across the near and offshore waters of 
Baja California, with 5 to 6 ft seas in NW swell, except to 7 ft
northwest of Guadalupe Island. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
prevail across the northern Gulf of California, where seas are 3
to 4 ft.

For the forecast, Four-E will intensify to a tropical storm near 
12.9N 100.9W Fri morning, then move to 14.1N 102.3W Fri evening,
15.2N 103.9W Sat morning, 16.2N 105.5W Sat evening, 17.0N 107.5W
Sun morning, and 17.4N 109.6W Sun evening. Four-E will begin to
weaken Sat night into Sun as it moves over cooler waters and will 
become a remnant low as it moves near 17.5N 113.5W late Mon. 
Expect increasing winds and seas across the near and offshore 
waters of southern Mexico between Puerto Angel and Cabo Corrientes
tonight through Sun evening. Moderate cross-equatorial southerly
swell will mix with seas generated from this system to impact 
the waters between Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes tonight 
through Sun. Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area 
will maintain gentle to moderate N-NW winds across the Baja 
California offshore waters through late Sun. NW to N swell will 
build into the Baja waters late Sun through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Heavy showers and tstms prevail across much of the area waters E
of 92W with gusty winds ongoing over the southern Costa Rica and
Panama offshore waters. Winds elsewhere from 02N to 10N are 
moderate to fresh from the SW with higher winds likely in areas 
of strong convection. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands,
winds are gentle to moderate from the SSE and seas are 7 to 9 ft
in cross-equatorial SW swell. 

For the forecast, large SW swell will persist through most of 
the weekend, then subside early next week. Potential Tropical 
Cyclone Four-E located south of Acapulco, Mexico near 11.9N 
100.6W will move NW through Fri then turn more W-NW and intensify
through the weekend. SW swell from this system will also impact 
the waters of El Salvador and Guatemala Fri through Sat. Showers 
and thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the area 
waters through Fri night then begin to diminish through the 
weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Four-E, located several hundred nautical miles 
south of Acapulco, Mexico.

Broad and weak ridging dominates the waters north of 14N, centered
on a 1030 mb high near 38N144W. This pattern is supporting mostly
moderate N to NE winds north of 10N and west of 120W, with 5 to 
7 ft seas in a mix of N and S swell. Southerly swell of 8 to 11 
ft is reaching as far north as 10N between 95W and 120W. 
Elsewhere fresh SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough 
between 90W and 110W, and into the circulation of PTC Four-E. 
Seas are 5 to 7 ft in SW swell elsewhere west of 120W.

In the forecast, little change is expected west of 120W except
for increased NW swell north of 28N and east of 130W Sat through
Mon. Conditions east of 120W and associated with Four-E are 
described in the Special Features section above, and will be 
dominated by building SW swell through Sat night, and E to SE 
swell generated by Four-E.

$$
Ramos