969 
AXPZ20 KNHC 130950
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jun 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E is centered near 12.8N 100.8W
at 13/0900 UTC, moving north-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are 6 to 9 ft between 
the center of the system and the SW coast of Mexico and 8 to 13 
ft within 240 nm SE quadrant of the center. Clusters of 
scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection extend from 
07N to 18N between 94W and 110W. A turn toward the northwest is 
expected later today, with a turn toward the west-northwest 
forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is 
forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern 
coast of Mexico. Strengthening is expected during the next 
couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm
later today and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves 
parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Four-E is expected
to steadily weaken Sun through Mon as it approaches the Revillagigedo
Islands, and moves over cooler waters. Please refer to the 
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
the latest Four-E NHC Forecast Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to Potential Tropical
Cyclone Four-E near 12.8N 100.8W, then resumes near 16N114W to 
11N127W. The ITCZ extends from 11N127W to beyond 09N140W. Aside
from the convection associated with Potential Tropical
Cyclone Four-E, scattered to numerous moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 01N to 15N E of 94W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N to 11N between 116W and 122W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Four-E, located several hundred nautical miles 
south of Acapulco, Mexico.

The remnant low of Cosme is located just southeast of Socorro 
Island near 17N109W at 1011 mb, and is moving slowly toward the 
east. No convection is present. Elsewhere, a broad and weak ridge
extends from a 1030 mb high centered well NW of the area near 
38N143W to just west of Guadalupe Island. Moderate NW winds 
prevail across the near and offshore waters of Baja California, 
with 4 to 6 ft seas in NW swell, except to 7 ft northwest of 
Guadalupe Island. Moderate southerly winds prevail across the 
northern Gulf of California, where seas are 3 ft.

For the forecast, Four-E will intensify to a tropical storm this
morning, move to 13.7N 101.5W this afternoon, 14.9N 103.0W Sat 
morning, 16.0N 104.6W Sat afternoon, 16.9N 106.5W Sun morning, 
17.4N 108.6W Sun afternoon, and 17.6N 110.5W Mon morning. Four-E
will begin to weaken Sat night into Sun as it moves over cooler 
waters and will become a remnant low as it moves near 18.0N 
114.0W early Tue. Expect increasing winds and seas across the 
near and offshore waters of southern Mexico between Puerto Angel 
and Cabo Corrientes through Sun evening. Moderate cross-equatorial
southerly swell will mix with seas generated from this system to
impact the waters between Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through
Sun. Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area will 
support moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds across the Baja 
California offshore waters through Tue night. NW to N swell will
build into the Baja waters late Sun through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Heavy showers and tstms prevail across much of the area waters E
of 94W with gusty winds likely ongoing over the Costa Rica offshore
waters. Winds elsewhere from 02N to 10N are moderate to fresh 
from the SW with higher winds likely in areas of strong 
convection. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are 
gentle to moderate from the SSE and seas are 7 to 9 ft in cross- 
equatorial SW swell. 

For the forecast, large SW swell will persist through most of 
the weekend, then subside early next week. Potential Tropical 
Cyclone Four-E located south of Acapulco, Mexico near 12.8N
100.8W will move NW through today then turn more W-NW and 
intensify through the weekend. SW swell from this system will 
also impact the waters of El Salvador and Guatemala today and Sat.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain active across 
the area waters through tonight then begin to diminish slightly
over the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Four-E, located several hundred nautical miles 
south of Acapulco, Mexico.

Broad and weak ridging dominates the waters north of 13N, 
centered on a 1030 mb high near 38N143W. This pattern is 
supporting mostly moderate N to NE winds north of 10N and west of
120W, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of N and S swell. Southerly 
swell of 8 to 11 ft has merged with the seas being generated by 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E. Elsewhere moderate to fresh 
SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 
110W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in S swell elsewhere west of 120W.

In the forecast, little change is expected west of 120W except
for increased NW swell north of 28N and east of 130W Sat through
Mon. Conditions east of 120W and associated with Four-E are 
described in the Special Features section above, and will be 
dominated by building SW swell through Sat night, and E to SE 
swell generated by Four-E.

$$
Ramos