344 
AXPZ20 KNHC 172345 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Sep 17 2026

Corrected Remainder of the Area section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure over southern Mexico and the eastern north Pacific 
monsoon trough will support strong to near-gale force N to NE gap
winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Fri. Winds earlier 
this morning were at gale-force, but have recently diminished to 
just below gale-force. Winds may again reach minimal gale force 
briefly tonight along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Winds will continue 
to pulse in the Gulf at fresh to strong speeds through Sat
morning, with seas lowering to a peak of around 6 ft. Please read 
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml 
for more details.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 115.5W from 07N to 18N, 
with low pressure of 1009 mb near 12N115.5W. It is moving 
westward at about 10 kt. satellite imagery reveals scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection between the wave and 
118W, and also from 11N to 14N between 111W and 116W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next 
week as it moves westward across the western part of the East 
Pacific. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at website: www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has is its axis along 99W from 05N northward to 
extreme southern Mexico near Acapulco. It is moving westward at 
around 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong 
convection is seen from 08N to 13N between 94W and 100W. An area
of low pressure could form in association to this wave well 
offshore of southwestern Mexico within the next few days. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late 
this weekend or early next week while it gradually moves 
northwestward and then northward off the coast of southwestern 
Mexico.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 115.5W from 07N to 18N, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. See the Special Features section 
above for related information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from along the coast of northwest 
Colombia west-southwest to across the Costa Rica/Panamanian
border, then to 09N84W to 07N1OOW to 09N110W to low pressure,
Invest EP98, near 12N115.5W 1009 mb and to 12N124W. Numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 13N between 
100W-106W, and from 06N to 09N between 118W-124W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between
91W-95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on a Gale
Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

Mostly gentle to moderate northwest winds across the central and
southern sections of the Gulf of California while light and
variable winds are over the northern portion of the Gulf. Seas 
are 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 3 
to 5 ft at the entrance due to long-period southwest swell.

For the forecast, please see the Special Features section for 
information about the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will persist into
the weekend over the regional Mexican waters. The exception is 
along and offshore the northern and central portions of Baja 
California, where northwest winds will pulse at fresh to locally
strong speeds into Sat night. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are expected 
over these waters through the weekend. Meanwhile, a tropical wave
located to the southeast of of Acapulco, Mexico is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the outer offshore 
waters of the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca. Looking ahead, 
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late 
this weekend or early next week while it moves gradually 
northwestward and then northward off the coast of southwestern 
Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas, 
prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream 
to near 92W. Moderate to fresh east winds extend downstream from
the Gulf of Papagayo to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador
and Guatemala. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north
of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will 
support pulsing fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds and 
moderate to rough seas across the Papagayo into Fri, then pulsing to 
moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate winds and seas will prevail 
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The 1006 mb remnant low of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is 
located near 15N133W. A 1912Z scatterometer satellite data pass 
shows fresh to strong northeast winds over the waters to the 
northwest of the low pressure near 26N. Seas are 7 to 10 ft with 
these winds per latest scatterometer satellite altimeter data. 
satellite imagery shows numerous isolated strong convection from
14N to 18N between 129W and 136W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present from 02N tom 07N between 125W and 
132W and from 14N to 20N between 120W and 129W.

Fresh to strong winds and rough seas supported by the pressure 
gradient between the area of low pressure and the subtropical 
ridge north of the area, cover the waters from 15N to 25N west of
125W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas in 
mixed swell are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for 
gradual development of the tropical wave along 115.5W, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week as it moves westward across the western part of the eastern
Pacific. Farther west, a broad area of fresh to strong northeast
to east winds and moderate to rough seas in north swell will 
persist through the remainder of the week from 15N to 25N west of 
125W through the weekend. Also, as described in the Tropical Waves 
section above, there is some potential for tropical cyclone 
development associated with a tropical wave that is near 99W for 
late this weekend or early next week.

$$
Aguirre