516 
AXPZ20 KNHC 102000
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jul 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W, from the NW Caribbean 
southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby 
convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W, from southern Mexico 
southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is 
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 124W from 18N southward, 
moving westward at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N96W to 12N112W to 
08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N130W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
04N to 12N between 80W and 101W, and from 04N to 10N between 
114W and 131W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula,
with a surface trough over the Gulf of California. The pressure
gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong
winds over the Gulf of California. A tropical wave passing south
of southern Mexico is helping to induce fresh to strong gap winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate winds are noted off Cabo
Corrientes. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
moderate or less across the discussion waters, reaching locally
rough in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds will prevail across 
the Baja California offshores through the middle of next week 
along with slight to moderate seas in mixed swell. Fresh to 
strong SE winds across the Gulf of California will diminish to 
gentle to moderate speeds by late Sat. Pulses of fresh to strong 
northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach 
near gale- force speed Mon night, which will continue to affect 
the region through at least midweek. Otherwise, an area of low 
pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week
several hundred miles south- southwest of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable 
for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form next week while the system moves generally west- 
northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the 
lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and 
rough to very rough seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico 
starting Sun night.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave is crossing Central America in the the Pacific
waters, inducing fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are between the Galapagos
Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. 
Seas are moderate or less, except rough in the Gulf of Papagayo. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds in the Papagayo 
region will prevail through the middle of next week with moderate
to rough seas. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds and rough to 
very rough seas may impact the waters offshore El Salvador and 
Guatemala Sat evening through late Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the waters N of 18N. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is 
supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough and W of 125W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas across the discussion waters are 
moderate or less. 

For the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to form 
late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south-
southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form next week while the 
system moves generally west- northwestward. Regardless of 
development, this system will bring strong winds and rough seas 
to the SW Mexican offshore immediate open waters Sun through 
midweek. Another area of low pressure could form by early next 
week well southwest of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow 
development of this system is possible next week while it moves 
slowly northwestward.

$$
AL