000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111521
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jan 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning...

Strong to gale force northerly winds behind a cold front moving
across the Gulf of America are funneling trough the Chivela Pass,
which continue to support gale-force N to NE winds in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec along with seas to 8 ft. Northerly winds are
forecast to reach storm-force this morning while seas will
rapidly build to 12 ft as strong high pressure continues to 
build in the wake of the front. Storm-force winds will diminish
back to gale-force by Mon morning. Peak seas during the period of 
strongest winds today and tonight are forecast to be 25 ft.  
Gale-force winds will then prevail through Tue evening, and
resume again by Thu morning due to a strong ridge that will
develop over the Gulf of America after the passage of a second
cold front.  

...Gulf of California Gale Warning...

A strong pressure gradient between a surface ridge over the 
Great Basin and high pressure offshore California, and a surface
trough along western Mexico and Baja California is resulting in 
gale-force NW winds in the northern Gulf of California, mainly N
of 29N. Strong to near-gale NW winds are noted elsewhere across 
the Gulf waters, except for moderate winds at the entrance of the
gulf. Rough seas to 9 ft are noted within the areas of strongest
winds. Gale-force winds will diminish this morning, however fresh
to strong NW winds will continue to affect the gulf until Mon
evening. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
details about these warnings.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 06N104W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N104W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 04N to 08N E of 84W, and from 07N to 17N and W of 122W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the upcoming Storm 
Warning over the Tehuantepec region, and the Gale Warning in 
effect for the northern Gulf of California.

The strong pressure gradient related to the Gale warning
described above, is also resulting in fresh to strong winds
funneling through the Baja California mountain passages into its
offshore waters. Seas along the Baja California's offshore 
waters are in the rough range. Light to gentle winds and slight 
to moderate seas in NW swell are elsewhere in the S and SW 
Mexican offshore waters. 

For the forecast, gale force NW winds will prevail in northern 
Gulf of California through this afternoon, then strong to near- 
gale NW winds will dominate through Mon. Storm-force winds have 
developed in the Tehuantepec region and will continue through 
Mon morning. Very rough to high seas are expected in this region.
Winds will diminish to gale force Mon morning and prevail 
through Tue evening. Afterward, winds will gradually diminish 
through Wed night. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure N of the region continues to support fresh to 
strong NE gap winds across the Papagayo region with rough seas 
at times. Pulsing fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. 
Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
fresh to strong winds across the Papagayo region through Wed 
along with rough seas in NW swell from a strong gap wind event 
in the Tehuantepec region. Pulsing moderate to fresh northerly 
winds are also expected across the Gulf of Panama through Thu. 
The strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will also 
result in rough to very rough seas across the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador starting this afternoon and subsiding 
Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will resume Thu night in the 
Gulf of Papagayo. Otherwise, gentle to moderate breezes and 
slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through the 
forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1030 mb offshore California extends a 
ridge across the subtropical waters and deep into the tropics to 
18N. The gradient of pressure between the ridge and the ITCZ 
continues to support a broad area of fresh NE to E winds from 
just N of the ITCZ to about 25N. Seas within these winds are 
rough per recent altimeter data. Elsewhere, winds are moderate 
or weaker and seas moderate.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail over the 
far western tropical waters through Mon along with rough seas 
that are forecast to subside by Tue night. Otherwise, a strong 
gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will result in rough to
very rough seas to affect the open waters from 07N to 13N 
between 95W and 110W from this evening through Tue night. A new 
NW swell will affect the western waters W of 130W Tue evening and
subside Thu evening.

$$
ERA