000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282256 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 28 2026

Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 95.5W north of 03N to the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec region moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate to isolated convection is west of the 
wave to 101W from 07N to 10N.

A tropical wave has its axis along 122W from 03N to 19N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong 
convection is west of the wave to 130W from 09N to 15N, and east
of the wave to 115W from 10N to 18N. Latest scatterometer data 
indicates moderate to fresh east to southeast winds east of the 
wave axis to near 110W from 12N to 19N. Seas with these winds are
5 to 7 ft.

The tropical wave that was previously along 139W is weakening 
west of 140W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected

The monsoon trough extends from 1006 mb low pressure in 
northwest Colombia west-southwestward to across the border 
between Costa Rica and Panama, and continues to the coast at 
09N84W and to 07N100W to 11N113W to 10N122W and to 07N129W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N135W and to beyond 
05N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 
within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 130W-139W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N between 
113W-118W, and from 10N to 14N between 104W AND 115W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between
105W-106W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure difference between high pressure ridging over the Gulf 
of America and relatively lower pressure in southeastern Mexico,
southward to the monsoon trough over the eastern Pacific is 
supporting fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Seas up to 8 ft prevail with these winds. In the Gulf of 
California, moderate to fresh southwest winds are over the 
northern portion from 30N to 31N along with seas of 2 to 4 ft.
The pressure gradient is slightly tighter over that portion of
the Gulf due to the presence of the diurnal trough. Seas over 
the rest of the Gulf are also 3 to 4 ft, except at the entrance, 
where higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest 
swell are present. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes 
generally reveal light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the 
Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in long- 
period south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong north to northeast gap 
winds will continue pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region 
through late Mon morning, These winds will begin to pulse again 
at fresh to strong speeds nightly starting Mon night. Elsewhere,
winds and seas across the Mexican offshore waters are expected 
to remain rather calm into the early part of the week. Northwest 
swell with seas to 8 ft is expected to move into the far northern
waters off Baja California Norte beginning tonight, and linger 
into midweek.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast gap winds are across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and off the southern coast of Nicaragua. Afternoon
altimeter satellite data indicates seas of 8 to 9 ft downstream 
of these winds, roughly from 08N to 11N between 87W and 95W. 
Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in 
long-period southerly swell over the equatorial waters as 
detected by multiple altimeter satellite data passes, and 5 to 6 
ft in long-period southwest swell across the remainder of the 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and mostly moderate
seas will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo region well into the 
upcoming week. Seas generated by these winds will, at times, 
spread downstream well away from the Gulf. Farther south, 
southerly swell moving into the equatorial waters will continue 
through the early part of the week. Scattered to numerous showers 
and thunderstorms will persist over the outer offshore waters of 
Costa Rica and western Panama through early in the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging dominates the remainder of the area north of
about 20N. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh trades over most of the area north 
of 10N and west of 119W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft west of 112W due to 
the combination of long-period north to northeast swell with 
trade wind generated waves. To the south, southeast swell is 
inducing seas up to 10 ft south of 02N between 87W and 120W as noted 
in various altimeter satellite data passes. Elsewhere, winds are 
mostly moderate or weaker. Seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in northwest 
to north swell, except mixed with east swell west of 129W.

For the forecast, the tropical wave near 122W is forecast to 
undergo possible gradual development during the next few days and
a tropical depression could form by the middle of this week 
while the system moves generally westward then northwestward. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive 
for development by late week as the system will be encountering
increasing shear and cooler waters. Outside of this system, 
little change in winds are expected for the next several days. 
Southerly swell moving through the far south- central waters is 
expected to begin to decay during the early part of the week.

$$
Aguirre