000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271539
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jun 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W 
reaching southward to near 05N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the southern portion 
of the wave and where the wave crosses the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave has its axis along 96W north of 08N to inland 
southeastern Mexico. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Numerous 
to isolated strong convection is west of the wave to near 107W
from 10N to 14N.

A tropical wave has its axis along 114W from 08N to 19N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. A mid-level cyclonic circulation is east of 
the wave axis near 11N112W. Anticyclonic flow aloft of the
cirrus clouds is noted in water vapor imagery from 09N to 14N 
between 108W and 113W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is present from 10N to 15N between 110W and 115W.

A tropical wave is analyzed from 21.5N130W to 17N133W and to 
11N135W. A weak 1011 mb low is along the axis near 20N as noted 
in satellite imagery. These features are moving westward at about
10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure of 1009 mb in 
northwest Colombia to across central Panama and southern Costa 
Rica, to 09N84W to 07N95W to 08N104W to 10N110W and to 08N115W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N125W to 06.5N132W and to
beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 
02N to 06N west of 136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 05N to 10N between 105W-112W, and within 
60 nm south of the ITCZ between 116W-123W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 98W-106W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure difference between high pressure ridging over the Gulf 
of America and lower pressure from southeastern Mexico southward
to the monsoon trough over the eastern Pacific is supporting 
fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas to 8 
ft are with these winds. In the Gulf of California, moderate 
to fresh south to southwest winds are over the northern portion 
due to a tighter gradient present there between the thermal 
trough and relatively higher pressure in western Mexico. Seas 
are 2 to 4 ft over the Gulf, except for 3 to 5 ft in the southern
portion. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the Mexican 
offshore waters along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period 
south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong north to northeast gap 
winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through 
Sun morning. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican 
offshore waters should be calm through early next week. Large 
northwest swell is expected to move into the far northern waters
off Baja California Norte beginning Sun night and perhaps linger
into Tue night.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast gap winds are across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and off the southern coast of Nicaragua. Overnight
altimeter satellite data indicates seas of 6 to 9 ft downstream 
of these winds from 09N to 11N between 87W and 91W. Moderate or 
weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in long-period 
southerly swell over the equatorial waters and 5 to 6 ft in SW 
swell over the remainder of the offshore waters. 

For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure
north of the area and lower pressures in the tropics will 
support fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf
of Papagayo through early Tue. These conditions may possibly 
reach as far west as 103W through Sun night before diminishing. 
Farther south, large southerly swell moving into the equatorial 
waters will continue through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak 1011 mb low is centered near 20N131W as mentioned above 
under the Tropical Waves section. Fresh to strong northeast winds
prevail north of the low to 22N and between 130W and 140W. Seas 
with these winds are 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, broad ridging 
dominates the remainder of the area north of 20N. The moderate 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is resulting in moderate to 
fresh trade winds from 10N to 28N west of 127W, and from 12N to 
17N between 113W and 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these areas, 
except for higher seas 6 to 8 ft from 14N to 20N west of 131W due
to long-period north to northeast swell. Elsewhere, winds across
the open Pacific are moderate or weaker. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in 
mixed north and southwest swell.

For the forecast, the tropical wave near 114W is forecast to 
undergo possible gradual development during the next several days
as it moves generally west-northwestward, and a tropical 
depression could form during the next few days while the wave 
moves generally westward to west-northwestward. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development 
by the second half of next week as the system moves over the 
western portion of the eastern North Pacific. Outside of this 
system, little change in winds are expected for the next several 
days. Large southerly swell moving through far south-central 
waters is expected to begin to decay during the early part 
of the upcoming week.

$$
Aguirre