149 
AXPZ20 KNHC 300140
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jan 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient will
develop in the Tehuantepec region on Fri as an arctic high 
pressure will build southward over eastern Mexico. North winds in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will reach strong to near-gale 
speeds Fri afternoon, and gale-force on Fri night, possibly 
lasting until late Tue. Seas are expected to build to 12 to 18 ft
late on Sat.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N85W to 04N100W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N
to 10N between 114W and 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Fri
night/early Sat through early next week. See the Special 
Features section above for more details.

The pressure gradient between surface ridging west of the Baja 
Peninsula and a surface trough over W Mexico supports fresh 
northwest winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are slight to 
moderate in the Gulf. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft,
are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, a strong cold front that will move across the 
Gulf of America will usher in another round of gale conditions in
the Tehuantepec region beginning Fri night. These winds may peak
to strong gale force, with seas possibly reaching to around 18 
ft late on Sat. These conditions will prevail through early next 
week. High pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will support 
moderate to fresh northwest winds across the Gulf of California 
before diminishing Sat night. Large northwest swell over the 
waters west of Baja California Norte will slowly decay through 
Fri. There is also potential for another set of northwest swell 
to move through the waters west of Baja California Norte late 
this weekend and early next week. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near-gale NE winds, and rough seas, prevail in the 
Gulf of Papagayo region extending westward to near 90W. Fresh 
gap winds prevail in Gulf of Panama area along with moderate 
seas. Over the remainder of forecast waters, gentle to moderate
winds, and moderate seas, prevail. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over 
the western Caribbean and the eastern north Pacific monsoon 
trough will maintain fresh to strong NE to east gap winds in the 
Papagayo region through the weekend. NE winds may increase to 
gale- force over Papagayo on Sun night and Mon, as an Arctic 
high pressure builds southward over eastern Mexico helps tighten
the pressure gradient. An upcoming gale force gap wind event over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce rough to very rough seas 
over the Guatemala and El Salvador waters Sat night into early 
next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trades from
north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 120W. Large 
northwest swell is moving through the northwest part of the area,
mainly N of 08N and W of 120W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds, and moderate seas in mixed swell, prevail.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure over the discussion
waters will weaken through the day Fri enabling a cold front to 
approach the area. This will loosen the pressure gradient and 
diminish winds slightly over the tradewind waters. The large 
northwest swell will propagate southeastward reaching 07N by Fri 
afternoon before gradually decaying into Sat. The cold front will
enter the NW waters Sat, and gradually dissipate over the NW
waters through Sun. The front will usher in a set of large northwest
swell, with rough to very rough seas impacting the waters N of
15N and W of 130W through Sun, then rough seas further spreading
SE to cover the waters N of 05N and W of 120W by Mon before
gradually subsiding. 

$$
AL