Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 280837

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Nov 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure has built across
the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of a frontal boundary 
over the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this area
of high pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough 
has tightened the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec area. 
The pressure gradient is supporting minimal gale conditions over 
the Gulf, with seas currently peaking near 12 ft. Strong to near
gale- force winds will persist through Wed, with gale- force 
winds expected through early Wed. Seas will peak around 13 ft 
with this event. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N95W to 10N111W to 
10N122W. The ITCZ continues from 10N122W to beyond 10N140W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
07N to 17N between 95W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 06N to 10N between 110W and 120W. 


Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec 
gale- force gap wind event. 

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted over the Gulf of 
California, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere, reaching moderate speeds over the outer 
portion of the offshore zones off southern and SW Mexico, just to
the south and west of the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the
8-10 ft range in NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula,
extending SW to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 5-8 ft 
prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
across the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific
monsoon trough will support strong to near- gale force gap winds
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed, with winds to gale- 
force over these waters through early Wed. Large NW swell over 
the waters west of Baja California, and SW to the Revillagigedo 
Islands, subside today. High pressure will begin to build across 
the region from the NW on Wed to bring a return to moderate to 
locally fresh NW winds across the Baja offshore waters late Wed 
through the end of the week.


Fresh to strong gap winds are over the Papagayo region, with 
fresh winds extending downwind of the Gulf to near 91W. Light to
gentle offshore winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands. Moderate winds are over the Gulf of 
Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon 
trough. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail, except 5-7 ft in the Papagayo 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed 
night, pulsing to strong speeds each night. Gentle winds south of
the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to locally fresh 
speeds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through tonight.
Moderate W to NW swell will move through the regional waters 
today through Thu. 


The 1010 mb remnant low of Ramon is near 14N127.5W. Fresh winds 
are noted within 45 nm N semicircle of the low. Gentle to 
moderate winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 24N.
Light to gentle winds are N of 24N. Gentle to moderate winds are
found S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. NW swell dominates the 
discussion waters W of 110W, with seas in the 9-11 ft range. Seas
of 6-8 ft are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the NW swell will subside very slowly, with 
seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters west of 110W 
through this evening before subsiding more quickly through Wed. 
High pressure to the northwest will begin to build across the 
region by Thu and freshen NE to E winds south of 25N into the 


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Nov-2023 08:37:23 UTC