000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140335
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Dec 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N71W to 09N86W to 05N93W.
The ITCZ then continues from 05N93W to 09.5N117W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is 
occurring from 07N to 13.5N between 107W and 129W, and from 06N 
to 09.5N west of 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure centered over the eastern United States
continues to extend southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to
eastern Mexico and the NW Caribbean, behind a stalled front from
central Cuba into the Gulf of Honduras. This pattern is 
supporting strong to near-gale force winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, with strong winds extending about 150 NM offshore 
of the coast. Peak seas of 10 ft are in the area of strongest 
winds. Large N to NE seas generated by a significant gap wind 
event in recent days are combining with prevailing NW swell to
produce seas 7 to 8 ft extending south and southwestward as far 
south as 04N. Elsewhere, new NW swell is prompting seas of 8 to
11 ft offshore of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia. 
Otherwise, weak ridging prevails over much of the Mexico offshore
waters, supporting moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft 
offshore of the rest Baja California and southwestern Mexico. 
Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail through the 
Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, prevailing high pressure across eastern Mexico
and the southern Gulf of Mexico will continue to support strong 
to near-gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through 
Mon morning. Rough seas in excess of 8 ft will accompany the 
winds. N winds will then pulse fresh to strong across the region
through at least the middle of next week. New NW swell will 
promote rough seas offshore of Baja California tonight into Sat, 
with peak seas to 11 ft will occur north of Punta Eugenia tonight
through midnight. High pressure will build modestly across the 
area waters this weekend while a series of cold fronts pass to 
the north of the region, while troughing prevails over 
northwestern Mexico. This pattern will support moderate to 
locally fresh NW to N winds across the Gulf of California and off
the coast of southwestern Mexico by early Sat, and across the 
waters offshore of Baja California Sat evening through early Mon.
Locally strong NW winds will be possible at times north of Punta
Eugenia and in the central Gulf of California. New moderate to 
large NW swell will enter the Baja Norte waters Sat night and 
spread southeastward into early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo
region as strong high pressure over over the eastern United 
States extends into the southern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean,
behind a stalled front from central Cuba into the Gulf of Honduras.
Rough seas to 8 ft are occurring downstream of this region, as 
well as in the far offshore waters of Guatemala. Fresh N winds 
are also pulsing in the Gulf of Panama. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail south of the
monsoon trough. North of the trough away from the fresh to 
strong gap winds, moderate NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft 
prevail. Fuego volcano in Guatemala is emitting frequent
suspended ash this evening moving WSW and dispersing before
reaching the coast.

For the forecast, prevailing high pressure extending 
southwestward across eastern Mexico and the southern Gulf of 
Mexico will continue to support strong NE winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo through Sat morning, with winds then pulsing to fresh to
strong speeds each night, Sat night through the middle of next 
week. Moderate to fresh N winds will occur across the western 
Gulf of Panama each night into the middle of next week. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas 
will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds and 
slight seas occurring north of the trough, away from the gap 
winds. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers moving
southwestward across the coastal waters of western Panama, and
southeastern Costa Rica, while scattered moderate convection has
been generally weakening across the waters of Colombia E of 80W.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front has temporarily stalled just north of the area, 
from just offshore of northern California to 30N140W. Moderate 
SW winds are occurring north of 29N ahead of this front. 
Elsewhere, a 1024 mb high is SE of the front near 31N123W, with 
weak ridging extending southeastward and leading to gentle to 
moderate E to NE winds north of 20N. South of 20N to the ITCZ, 
moderate to fresh trades prevail, with locally strong winds 
occurring south of 13N and west of 136W, where seas are 11 to 13
ft. A complex swell pattern, comprised of residual mixed seas 
south of 25N, new long-period NW swell entering the northern 
waters, and NE seas generated by recent gale-force winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec are leading to widespread seas of 8 to 10 ft
across much of the open waters of the Pacific, with the 
exception of areas south of 04N and east of 120W. South of the 
ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh SE winds prevail with seas of 6
to 9 ft. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is 
occurring along and N of the ITCZ from 07N to 13.5N between 107W
and 129W, and from 06N to 09.5N west of 132W.

For the forecast, the broad area of rough seas from multiple sets
of NW swell, trade wind-generated swell and swell from gap wind
events in Central America will continue to produce rough seas in
excess of 8 ft across much of the open waters today, with the 
exception of areas south of 04N and east of 120W. Seas will
slowly subside E of 100W on Sat. Peak seas around 13 ft are 
expected in the far western waters between 05N and 15N west of 
135W in the zone of strongest trade winds through midnight. New 
NW swell will reinforce rough seas north of 23N Sat into Sun. A 
series of cold fronts sweeping across the NE Pacific north of the
area will continue to generate NW swell and reinforce seas in 
excess of 8 ft for most areas north of the ITCZ through the 
middle of next week. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will 
continue from north of the ITCZ to 20N, west of 120W through Mon 
as an E to W ridge resides across the northern area waters. 
Farther east, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will continue
north of the ITCZ to around 15N between 105W and 120W through 
the weekend. 

$$
Stripling