836 
AXPZ20 KNHC 212125
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jul 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Fausto is centered near 16.6N 119.9W at 21/2100 UTC, 
moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 
80 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft. Numerous moderate scattered 
strong convection is occurring from 13.5N to 16.5N between 118W 
and 121W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 113W and 123W. Fausto is now 
moving toward the west-northwest. A general west-northwestward 
to westward motion is expected for the next several days. Little 
change in strength is expected today. After that, gradual 
strengthening is expected tonight through Thursday. Swells generated 
by Fausto are expected to reach the west coast of the Baja California
Peninsula tonight, and persist for a couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 90W N of 06N extending into Guatemala.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near
the southern end of the wave axis from 05N to 10N between 85W and
90W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia to 07N80W to 08N95W to 11N110W, where it 
breaks for Hurricane Fausto, then resumes near 12N126W to beyond
09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N 
between 90W and 111W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Fausto, centered about 675 nm WSW of the southern tip 
of Baja California.

Moderate to fresh winds and rough seas associated with the outer
periphery of Hurricane Fausto are reaching the Clarion Island. A
couple of altimeter passes indicate seas of 8 to 10 ft on either
side of Socorro Island. Elsewhere, a very weak and narrow ridge 
extends across the offshore waters of Baja California supporting 
light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro,
with higher seas in the 6 to 9 ft S of Cabo San Lazaro. Inside 
the Gulf of California, recent satellite altimeter data show
light to gentle winds with the exception of gentle to moderate SE
to S winds from 27N to 28.5N E of 112W to the coast of Sonora. 
Seas are estimated at 2 to 4 ft except to 5 ft across the 
entrance. Gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas prevail 
across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. 

For the forecast, as Hurricane Fausto moves westward and away from
the region, high pressure will begin to build across the Baja 
California offshore waters Wed and Thu to produce moderate to 
fresh NW winds with isolated areas of strong winds during the 
afternoon and evening hours. Swells generated by Fausto are expected 
to reach the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula 
tonight, and persist for a couple of days. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office. In the 
Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are
expected. Fresh northerly winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec 
region during the overnight and early morning hours through the 
week, with locally rough seas.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop
well south of Mexico over the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter,
and a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward
to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of
the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives 
this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7
days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The most recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to 
strong NE to E winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to
about to 91W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, 
winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to 
rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through Wed
night, with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the Gulf of 
Fonseca. Gentle to moderate N winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Panama with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere, except in the 
immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western 
Colombia where slight seas are forecast. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Fausto, centered about 675 nm WSW of the southern tip 
of Baja California.

Hurricane Fausto and the remnants of Elida, currently located
well N of the forecast area, dominate conditions over the High 
Seas forecast waters N of 10N and W of 110W. Seas in the 8 to 9
ft range, associated with the remnants of Elida, are still 
affecting the waters north of a line from 30N124W to 28N130W to 
30N134W. Outside of the circulation of Fausto, moderate or weaker
winds moderate to locally rough seas prevail. 

For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will move to 17.0N 121.1W Wed 
morning, 17.4N 122.7W Wed afternoon, 17.7N 124.6W Thu morning, 
17.9N 127.0W Thu afternoon, 18.3N 129.6W Fri morning, and 18.6N 
132.3W Fri afternoon. Fausto will change little in intensity as 
it moves to near 19.4N 137.4W Sat afternoon. Looking ahead, a broad 
area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico
over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form while it moves westward to west-
northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the 
eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this 
system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 
days. As is typical during EL Nino years, the eastern Pacific
remains active, with one tropical system developing after another.

$$
GR