000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262337 AAA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2337 UTC Fri Jun 26 2026

Updated Remainder of the Area section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W 
reaching southward to near 05N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 
kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 
09N east of 83W to inland Colombia near 76W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 90W north of 08N extending 
northward across eastern Guatemala to the southern portion of
the Yucatan Peninsula. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Aside
from scattered showers and a few thunderstorms near the axis 
north of 16N, and also east from there to Belize, no significant 
convection is occurring near this wave at the present time.

A tropical wave has its axis near 110W from 08N to 17N, moving 
westward around 10 kt. Latest ASCAT data pass indicates a fetch of 
mostly fresh east to southeast winds east of the wave to near 101W. 
A mid-level cyclonic circulation was noted in satellite animation 
imagery near 14.5N107W. Increasing scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is from 11N to 17N between the wave and 105W, and 
west of the wave to 113W from 10N to 17N. This convection is 
enhancing the fresh winds to strong speeds in several locations 
within the area of the fresh winds.

A tropical wave has its axis near 127W from 11N to 21N. A weak 
1011 mb low is along the axis at 20N as noted in satellite 
imagery. It is moving westward at estimated motion of about 
15 kt. Only isolated weak showers are within 60 nm northwest 
of the low.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1008 mb in 
northwest Colombia to across northern Panama and to 09N84W to 08N96W 
to 08.5N102W to 08.5N112W to 13N119W to 12.5N124W to 09N127W, where 
it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N131.5W and to beyond 06N140W. 
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N 
between 78W-83W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm 
north-northeast of the the trough between 115W-120W, and within 60 
nm of the trough between 91W-95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure difference between high pressure ridging over the Gulf 
of America and relatively lower pressure present from southeastern 
Mexico southward to region of the monsoon trough that is over the 
eastern Pacific is continuing to sustain fresh to strong gap winds 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as was revealed in today's 1540Z ASCAT 
data pass. Seas to 8 ft are with these winds. In the Gulf of 
California, fresh southwest winds were detected by a recent ASCAT 
pass across the central portion of the Gulf from the gradient 
associated to the diurnal thermal trough. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over 
the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in the 
southern portion. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the 
Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long- period 
south to southwest swell. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong north to northeast gap 
winds are expected to continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region through Sun morning. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the
Mexican offshore waters should be rather calm through early next
week. Large northwest swell is expected to may move into the
far northern waters off Baja California Norte beginning Sun 
night and linger into Tue.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are across the Gulf 
of Papagayo and off the southern coast of Nicaragua. Recent
altimeter satellite data indicates seas of 6 to 8 ft downstream 
of these winds from 09N to 11N between 87W and 91W. Moderate 
or weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in long-period 
southerly swell over the equatorial waters and 5 to 6 ft in SW 
swell over the remainder of the offshore waters. 

For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure
north of the area and relatively lower pressures in the tropics 
will support fresh to occasionally strong gap winds and rough seas 
across the Gulf of Papagayo through early Tue. These conditions may 
possibly reach as far west as 96W through Sun night. Farther south, 
large southerly swell moving into the equatorial waters will 
continue through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Updated

A weak 1011 mb low is centered near 20N127W as mentioned above under 
the Tropical Waves section. A recent ASCAT data pass depicts fresh 
to strong northeast winds north of the low to 22N and roughly 
between 125W and 129W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 9 ft. 
Elsewhere, broad ridging dominates the remainder of the area north 
of 15N. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is resulting in 
moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 27N west of 127W, and from 
12N to 17N between 113W and 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these 
areas, except for higher seas 6 to 8 ft from 14N to 20N west of 131W 
due to long-period north to northeast swell. Elsewhere, winds across 
the open Pacific are moderate or weaker. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in mixed 
north and southwest swell.

For the forecast, the tropical wave near 110W is forecast to undergo 
possible gradual development during the next several days as it 
moves generally west-northwestward, and a tropical depression could 
form during the early to middle part of next week. By late next 
week, the system is expected to reach a much less favorable 
environment for development. Outside of this system, little change 
in winds are expected for the next several days. Large southerly 
swell moving through far south-central waters, with seas of 8 to 9 
ft may reach to near 03N between 100W and 127W by Sun night and into 
Mon.

$$
Aguirre