AXPZ20 KNHC 231557
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jan 23 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 03N96W to 04N100W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 05N112W to 03N132W to beyond
04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N between
78W and 81W, from 03N to 07N between 123W and 136W, and from 02N
to 17N between 136W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate wind speeds are moving into the waters off Baja
California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California in
association with a dissipating cold front. Fresh to locally
strong winds are expected there tonight through Sun morning.
Gentle winds prevail elsewhere over the offshore waters of
Mexico except for moderate N winds near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are
generally 5 to 7 ft, but will increase to 8 to 11 ft offshore
Baja California Norte late tonight.
A strong cold front will reach Baja California Norte early Mon,
with large long-period NW swell expected west of Baja California
through Tue night. Significant wave heights up to 20 ft are
expected west of Baja California Norte late Mon into early Tue.
There is a significant risk of hazardous surf conditions north of
Punta Eugenia Mon through early Tue. Winds will first increase
west of Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California
Sun night as the front approaches and remain strong through Tue.
Near gale force winds are expected late Monday in the northern
Gulf of California and west of Baja California Norte.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds prevail across most of the regional
offshore waters with seas of 5-6 ft. The exception is the
Papagayo region, where fresh to occasionally strong gap winds are
expected through Wed. Fresh northerly winds are expected across
the Gulf of Panama tonight through Sun night. Gentle to moderate
winds are expected elsewhere.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1036 mb centered northwest of the area near
37N145W extends a ridge southward to near 15N. The gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting
fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N west of 120W.
Seas in this area are in the 7 to 8 ft range in a mix of N swell
and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist through the
The next significant north to northwest swell event is expected
to arrive tonight, followed by large, long-period NW swell
arriving on Mon, associated with a cold front moving into Baja
California Norte. This swell will spread southward across much of
the forecast area north of 10N and west of 110W. Highest seas
are expected Mon through Tue west of Baja California.