795 
AXPZ20 KNHC 242134
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.1N 105.5W at 24/2100 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 935 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with
gusts to 160 kt. Peak seas are currently around 40 ft, or 12.0 m.
Numerous strong convection is noted around the well-defined eye
within 180 nm of the center. Polo is moving west-northwest and a
turn toward the west is expected Fri, followed by a return to the
west-northwest Sat. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is
expected to move away from the coast of southwestern Mexico this
afternoon and evening. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the 
Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is
expected tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast starting Fri
night and Sat. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact coastal
sections of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit. This 
rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo 
will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during 
the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward along the 
coast of west-central Mexico and toward Baja California Sur on 
Fri and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- 
threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Odalys is centered near 16.8N 124.9W at 24/2100 UTC,
moving east-northeast at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with
gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas have increased to 33 ft, or 10.0 m.
Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center. 
Odalys is moving toward the east-northeast. This general motion
is expected through tonight, with a gradual turn toward the
northeast and north expected Fri and Sat. Some fluctuations in
strength are possible in the next day or so, followed by
weakening through the weekend. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Polo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low
pressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into
Central America and adjacent southern Mexico over the remainder
of the week, leading to enhanced rainfall over the region into
the weekend. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of 
northwest Nicaragua, the mountains of Honduras and Guatemala, as 
well as portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, and will raise
concerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. 
Please refer to local weather services as well as the 
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more 
information. As this low pressure moves into the eastern Pacific 
south of southern Mexico early next week, it has a potential for 
tropical development.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia at 10N74W to across Panama and Costa Rica to
near the Gulf of Papagayo at 10N86W to near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec at 15N96W. The monsoon trough resumes SSW of Odalys
from 12N127W to 11N132W to 12N140W. Aside from the convection 
described in the sections above, scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 83W, 
from 02N to 11N between 88W and 91W, from 13N to 16N between 92W 
and 99W, and within 210 nm SW of the monsoon trough W of 134W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 
97W and 101W, and within 180 nm SE of the monsoon trough between 
125W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on 
Major Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys well WSW of the 
offshore waters.

Away from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 
ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of
the waters away from Polo.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 17.0N 105.8W
this evening, 17.1N 107.8W Fri morning, and 17.4N 109.6W Fri 
evening. Hurricane Polo will be at 18.2N 111.2W Sat morning, 
19.4N 112.5W Sat evening, and 21.1N 113.3W Sun morning. Polo will
change little in intensity as it moves to the west of Baja 
California Sur early Mon. Odalys will move to 16.9N 124.5W this 
evening, 17.8N 123.6W Fri morning, and 18.6N 123.1W Fri evening. 
Odalys weaken to a tropical storm near 19.6N 123.0W Sat morning, 
then reach 21.0N 122.9W Sat evening, and 22.4N 122.6W Sun 
morning. Odalys will weaken to a remnant low northwest of the 
Revillagigedo Islands early Mon. Looking ahead, an area of low 
pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions 
should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form early next week as the system moves 
slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the 
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance
of tropical formation of this system through the next seven 
days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters N of 09N, with
gentle to moderate S-SW winds S of 09N. Locally rough seas have
propagated into the western offshore waters of Guatemala due to
Major Hurricane Polo near SW Mexico. Otherwise, moderate seas 
prevail, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia and Panama, 
and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail 
across the offshore waters through the weekend, along with mainly
moderate seas. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for information on 
Major Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys well WSW of the 
offshore waters.

Outside of Odalys and Polo, moderate or weaker winds dominate. Seas
are 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells away from Polo and Odalys.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 17.0N 105.8W
this evening, 17.1N 107.8W Fri morning, and 17.4N 109.6W Fri 
evening. Hurricane Polo will be at 18.2N 111.2W Sat morning, 
19.4N 112.5W Sat evening, and 21.1N 113.3W Sun morning. Polo will
change little in intensity as it moves to the west of Baja 
California Sur early Mon. Odalys will move to 16.9N 124.5W this 
evening, 17.8N 123.6W Fri morning, and 18.6N 123.1W Fri evening. 
Odalys weaken to a tropical storm near 19.6N 123.0W Sat morning, 
then reach 21.0N 122.9W Sat evening, and 22.4N 122.6W Sun 
morning. Odalys will weaken to a remnant low northwest of the 
Revillagigedo Islands early Mon. Looking ahead, an area of low 
pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions 
should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form early next week as the system moves 
slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the 
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance
of tropical formation of this system through the next seven 
days. 

$$
Konarik