000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260850
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jun 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is entering the Pacific, and extends along 88W
northward into El Salvador. This wave is moving west at 10 kt. No
significant convection is evident along the wave axis at this
time.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W, south of 17N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active
from 13N to 15N between 106W and 108W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 124W, south of 21N, moving 
westward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is
occurring with this system this morning.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 06N95W to 11N118W to
08N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from
05N to 09N between 90W and 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong gap winds continue to pulse across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this morning, along with rough seas. This is due the
pressure difference between high pressure over south-central 
Mexico and lowering pressure along the monsoon trough over the 
eastern Pacific. Currently, clusters of thunderstorms are active 
across the Tehuantepec area. Farther north, a recent 
scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh SW gap winds across 
the northern Gulf of California. This is associated with 1000 mb
low pressure over the lower Colorado River Valley. Gentle to 
moderate breezes and 4 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across 
Mexican offshore waters, with 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, Lower pressure over the deep tropics will continue 
inducing fresh to strong N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through late Sat. Elsewhere, winds and seas across 
the Mexican offshore waters should be quiescent through early 
next week. Looking ahead, large NW swell may move into the waters
off Baja California Norte starting Sun night.  

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong
E to SE gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and off the coast
of Nicaragua. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed seas of
at least 8 ft downstream of this plume. Elsewhere winds are 
moderate or weaker. Seas are 7-9 ft in S swell over the 
equatorial waters and 5-6 ft in SW swell over the remainder of 
the offshore waters. 

For the forecast, the pattern will continue support fresh to 
occasionally strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of 
Papagayo through early next week. This plume of strong winds and 
rough seas will reach as far west as the waters beyond 180 nm off
Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun night. Farther south, 
large S swell moving into the equatorial waters will continue 
through early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1009 mb low is centered near 19N124W. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass confirmed fresh NE winds within 90 nm of the
center in the northwest semicircle. Seas are estimated to be 8-9
ft there in a mix of swell. Broad ridging dominates the remainder
of the area north of 15N. The moderate pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure over the monsoon trough/ITCZ is 
forcing moderate to fresh NE trades between 10N and the ridge. 
Elsewhere, winds across the open Pacific are moderate or weaker. 
Seas are 5-8 ft in mixed SW and N swell.

For the forecast, the tropical wave near 108W is forecast to 
encounter more favorable conditions for development over the 
weekend across the central portion of the East Pacific basin. A 
tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part
of next week while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 kt the waters well southwest of the Revillagigedo
Islands. Outside of this system, little change in winds are 
expected for the next several days. A large SE swell should reach
our southern border tonight and reach up to 01N with at least 8 
ft seas for the next several days.

$$
Christensen