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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040906
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 84W north of 03N into Central 
America, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 83W and 89W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 97W/98W north of 02N into 
southern Mexico, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring from 09N to 12N between 94W and 99W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 106W south of 18N, moving west 
at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed with this wave. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 09N87W to 1011 mb low 
pressure near 10N95W to 08N98W to 14N107W to 1011 mb low 
pressure near 14N111W to 11N111W to 12N128W to 09N140W. Numerous 
moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N 
between 113W and 125W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is occuring from 07N to 11N between 133W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, 
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Light westerly winds 
prevail across the Gulf of California. 

A ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California this 
weekend, producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Northerly 
swell is forecast to reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia, 
and increase seas W of northern Baja California early next week.

A meandering surface trough is across the Gulf of California.
Gentle southerly winds will prevail over the Gulf of California 
this weekend, then increase to 15-20 kt in the northern Gulf 
early next week as the pressure gradient tightens in NW Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo Mexico continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system 
is possible through early next week as it moves west-northwest, 
well south of southern Mexico. This system has a low chance of 
tropical cyclone formation.

A second low pressure area is forecast to form south of southern 
Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression could form by the middle of next week as it moves 
west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to occasionally fresh SW to W winds will prevail over 
the waters S of 10N this weekend. Long period SW swell will 
gradually subside across the region through Mon. An area of low 
pressure is forecast to form west of Central America in a couple 
of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive 
for gradual development. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge will dominate northern forecast waters the next several 
days. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near 
the monsoon trough will support moderate to fresh trade winds 
across tropical waters, roughly from 10N to 20N west of 120W. 

Long period cross-equatorial S to SW swell across most of the 
tropical east Pacific Ocean will gradually subide the next 
couple of days, with sea heights expected to be 5 to 7 ft.  

$$
Mundell