AXPZ20 KNHC 272136
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 27 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 12.5N87W TO 12N100W TO 10N118W,
then transitions to ITCZ and continues on to 08N127W to beyond
09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
05N to 13N between 80W and 96W, from 05.5N to 10.5N between 99W
and 114W, and from 06N to 10.5N between 118W and 127W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge dominates the region W of 105W, where a 1030 mb high
near 37N136W extends SE across the region to just SW of the
Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds
will continue across the offshore waters of Baja California
today, then become fresh tonight through Tue. Seas of 6 to 9 ft
will prevail across this area through the weekend then diminish
gradually Mon and Tue. To the east of 100W and Cabo San Lucas,
gentle NW to W winds prevail across the offshore waters to
Puerto Angel. NW to N winds will freshen offshore and to the
south of Cabo San Lucas this afternoon through tonight before
winds diminish slightly late Mon through Wed as the high
reorganizes to the NW.
Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected
across the Gulf waters today, with strong afternoon and evening
sea breezes recurring along the Mexican coastline from Mazatlan
to Guaymas through Mon. A low pressure trough developing over the
Baja Peninsula will cause winds over the Gulf to light to gentle
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds are expected to be variable during
the next few days, with moderate NW to N winds at night and light
SW to S winds during the late mornings and afternoons.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The monsoon trough is displaced well N of its climatological
position in response to elongated low pressure that persists
from Central America and the Yucatan peninsula into the Gulf of
Mexico, where Subtropical Storm Alberto has formed. This
pressure pattern will persist across the regional Pacific waters
through at least Wed and support light to moderate SW to W winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell for the waters west of Central
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Elsewhere, the ridge building over the north central Pacific is
producing a modest pressure gradient across the trade wind belt,
with moderate to fresh winds observed in satellite-derived wind
data from 09N to 24N to the west of 120W. Seas are running 6 to
10 ft across this zone this afternoon and will change very
little through Tue. The high is forecast to reorganize to the NW
Tue through Wed and then shift westward later in the week. This
will produce a very slight decrease in areal coverage of the
fresh trade winds into mid week.
Deepening low pressure over the Desert SW of the U.S. will
combine with building high pressure W of California to tighten
the pressure gradient along the California coast. Long period N
swell generated by these winds will cause seas N of 25N between
120W and 135W to build to between 8 and 10 ft by Wed morning.