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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272136
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2000 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 12.5N87W TO 12N100W TO 10N118W, 
then transitions to ITCZ and continues on to 08N127W to beyond 
09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 
05N to 13N between 80W and 96W, from 05.5N to 10.5N between 99W 
and 114W, and from 06N to 10.5N between 118W and 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the region W of 105W, where a 1030 mb high 
near 37N136W extends SE across the region to just SW of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds 
will continue across the offshore waters of Baja California 
today, then become fresh tonight through Tue. Seas of 6 to 9 ft 
will prevail across this area through the weekend then diminish 
gradually Mon and Tue. To the east of 100W and Cabo San Lucas, 
gentle NW to W winds prevail across the offshore waters to 
Puerto Angel. NW to N winds will freshen offshore and to the 
south of Cabo San Lucas this afternoon through tonight before 
winds diminish slightly late Mon through Wed as the high 
reorganizes to the NW.

Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected 
across the Gulf waters today, with strong afternoon and evening 
sea breezes recurring along the Mexican coastline from Mazatlan 
to Guaymas through Mon. A low pressure trough developing over the
Baja Peninsula will cause winds over the Gulf to light to gentle
by Wed.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds are expected to be variable during 
the next few days, with moderate NW to N winds at night and light
SW to S winds during the late mornings and afternoons.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough is displaced well N of its climatological 
position in response to elongated low pressure that persists 
from Central America and the Yucatan peninsula into the Gulf of 
Mexico, where Subtropical Storm Alberto has formed. This 
pressure pattern will persist across the regional Pacific waters 
through at least Wed and support light to moderate SW to W winds 
and seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell for the waters west of Central 
America.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Elsewhere, the ridge building over the north central Pacific is 
producing a modest pressure gradient across the trade wind belt, 
with moderate to fresh winds observed in satellite-derived wind 
data from 09N to 24N to the west of 120W. Seas are running 6 to 
10 ft across this zone this afternoon and will change very 
little through Tue. The high is forecast to reorganize to the NW 
Tue through Wed and then shift westward later in the week. This 
will produce a very slight decrease in areal coverage of the 
fresh trade winds into mid week.

Deepening low pressure over the Desert SW of the U.S. will 
combine with building high pressure W of California to tighten 
the pressure gradient along the California coast. Long period N 
swell generated by these winds will cause seas N of 25N between 
120W and 135W to build to between 8 and 10 ft by Wed morning.

$$
Stripling