AXPZ20 KNHC 272136
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Oct 27 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of California Gale Warning...a strong cold front has swept
southward across the full length of the Gulf of California and
Baja California last night and today. Sustained gale force winds
and gusts occurring across northern portions of the Gulf north of
the Tiburon Basin has diminished below gale force, and gale
warnings have been discontinued. Strong northerly winds currently
prevail across most of the full length of the Gulf this
afternoon, with peak seas to 10 ft across north portions, and 8
ft across southern portions. Winds and seas will begin begin to
diminish across the Gulf from north to south beginning late this
afternoon through Wed.
There are presently no tropical wave identifiable across the
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N74W to 09N80W to
13N94W to 11N133W. The ITCZ begins near 11N133W and continues
beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 03.5N to 09.5N E of 84W, from 08.5N to 16.5N between
89W and 100W, and from 11N to 12.5N W of 134W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 113W and
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The strongest cold front of the season has swept across NW Mexico
and extends from near Mazatlan southwestward across the entrance
to the Gulf to near 21N112W. Strong northerly winds will
persist across much of the Gulf through this afternoon before
beginning to diminish from north to south. Seas of 6-9 ft will
prevail across the southern portions of the Gulf through this
evening before winds and seas begin to slowly subside tonight.
The strong northerly winds across the northern Gulf are spilling
through the gaps in the terrain of Baja California Norte and
producing narrow plumes of strong NE winds to 25 kt across
portions of the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, where
seas are 6-8 ft. As winds diminish across the northern Gulf later
this afternoon, conditions will also improve across these
northern offshore waters. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong N to
NE winds prevail across the remaining offshore waters of Baja
California where seas are 5-7 ft. Northerly winds to near 20 kt
and seas of 6-8 ft will linger across the outer offshore waters
to the SW of Punta Eugenia and across the entrance to the Gulf of
California through sunrise Wed before gradually subsiding during
the day Wed.
Light and gentle winds will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Thu. The next significant gap wind event in Tehuantepec
is forecast to begin Thu evening. Model guidance suggest a rapid
wind increase to near gale force winds around sunset Thu and
increasing to 40 kt overnight, with gales continuing through Sat
morning. force winds by Fri afternoon. Strong gap winds are
expected to persist through the weekend with gales returning Sun
morning. Peak seas during this evening are expected to build to
16 ft by Fri afternoon.
Winds will remain light to gentle over the SW Mexico offshore
waters, except for the offshore waters between Puerto Vallarta
and Manzanillo where moderate to fresh northwest winds are
expected this afternoon through Thu evening associated with the
cold front across the Gulf of California.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds will prevail
mainly between the monsoon trough and N of the Galapagos Islands
through the forecast period. Seas are expected to remain in the
5-6 ft range, increasing to 6-7 ft Fri due to NW waves spreading
into the area from the upcoming Tehuantepec gap wind event.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong high pressure N of the area extends a broad ridge southward
into the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure associated with the monsoon and the
ITCZ will support the continuation of moderate to locally fresh
NE winds over a belt approximately from 12N to 22N W of 115W.
Seas are generally 6-8 ft across this region in a broad mix of
swell and easterly tradewind waves. Little change is expected in
these conditions through Wed morning before shifting W of 140W
late on Wed.