000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Feb 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure in northwest
Colombia southwestward through central Panama and to 08N81.5W 
and to 05N90W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N100W to
01N110W to 01N120W to 01N130W and to beyond 01N140W. No
significant convection is noted.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from western Nevada south-
southwestward to across Baja California Norte and to near 
25N120W. Moderate northwest to north winds are offshore Baja 
California Norte and the northern part of Baja California Sur.
Seas of 6 to 8 ft in northwest swell are over the offshore waters 
of Baja California Norte as well as the offshore waters of Baja 
California Sur from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. Seas of 
5 to 7 ft in northwest swell are over the rest of the Baja
California offshore waters, also over the waters from 17N to 20N 
between 110W and 115W, and over the offshore waters of the 
Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are in 
west to northwest are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore
waters.

The stationary front will gradually and weaken and dissipate as 
a old front approaches the Baja California peninsula on Fri, 
followed by fresh northwest winds and large swell north of Cabo 
San Lazaro. The front will stall and dissipate Sat over the 
central Gulf and California and Baja California Sur. The next 
cold front may approach Baja California early next week, followed
by another round of large NW swell. Farther south, fresh to 
strong gap winds and rough seas will pulse tonight into Thu night
over the Tehuantepec region. Strong gap winds may again be 
active across the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with seas to 8 ft
are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh north 
to northeast winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the the Gulf of 
Panama. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mix
 swell are elsewhere over these waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas will 
persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region into Sat. Little
change is expected with the winds in the Gulf of Panama through 
Fri, then diminish slightly afterward. Moderate winds and seas 
will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weakening low pressure of 1017 mb is near 26N127W, with a cold
front that extends to 22N133W and to near 23N140W. Latest
altimeter satellite data passes shows seas in the range of 
11 to 14 ft north of the front west of about 132W. Seas of 
7 to 10 ft in northwest swell are elsewhere north of 26N and west
of about 128W, and 6 to 8 ft in northwest swell east of 128W.
Gentle to moderate breezes and seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the 1017 mb low pressure will dissipate on Fri
and the merged front will weaken as it continues east through 
Baja California and the norther part of the Gulf of California. 
Winds will diminish follow the front, but large 8 to 11 ft north 
northwest to north swell will persist north of 10N and west of 
125W. The front will dissipate across the central Gulf of 
California and Baja California Sur. High pressure will extend 
across the waters north of 20N this weekend, supporting moderate 
to fresh trade winds over the deep tropics west of 115W. Seas 
will be 6 to 8 ft north of 10N and west of 115W by then, with 
moderate winds and seas elsewhere. A new cold front will approach
30N140W late Sat, then move eastward across the waters north of 
20N and west of 120W through early next week followed by a new 
round of strong winds and rough seas, with northwest swell of 12
to 17 ft possible north of 23N and west of 125W by Mon.

$$
Aguirre