000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200841
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jul 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 91W from 09N northward across 
portions of Guatemala to the coast of the western Yucatan 
Peninsula, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is 
described below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 129W from 05N to 18N, moving 
westward at 5 to 10 kt. A broad 1012 mb low pressure is along the
wave at 12N per recent ASCAT scatterometer and other satellite
data. Nearby convection is described below.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure near eastern Panama
at 08.5N77W to 08N100W to 09N120W to low pressure near 12N129W to
12N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 05N to 08N between 77W and 81W, and from 05N to 12N between 
94W and 107W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 
07N between 79W and 90W, from 04N to 08N between 108W and 119W, 
from 15N to 17N between 125W and 129W, and from 07N to 14N 
between 129W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from along the Baja California
Peninsula into the northern Gulf of California. Moderate to
locally fresh SE winds are in the Gulf of California north of
26N, with light and variable winds south of there in the Gulf.
Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, slightly higher
near the entrance. Recent ASCAT scatterometer data showed fresh
to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where seas are 6 to
8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds continue, locally 
fresh near Punta Eugenia on the Baja California Peninsula. Seas 
are 4 to 5 ft in long-period southwest swell, mixed with NW 
swell in the outer Baja California offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds will pulse in the
northern Gulf of California later this morning as low pressure 
deepens just N of the area. Moderate to fresh SE winds will then
prevail there through Tue night. Pulsing fresh to strong north 
gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed 
night as a surface trough is expected to move from the Yucatan 
Peninsula to Veracruz for the next several days. Rough seas are 
forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early today. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will 
prevail. Winds may freshen near Baja California by mid-week as 
the local pressure gradient tightens slightly. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region per overnight ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas 
with these winds are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate southerly winds are over
the waters between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands along with 
seas of 5 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell. Light and variable
winds are elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters,
except moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama. Seas over the
remainder of the waters are 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest 
swell, except mixed with fresh NW swell offshore Guatemala and
El Salvador due to an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event
west of the area.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east 
winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through early Thu with
periods of rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh winds 
associated with these gap winds will continue to affect the outer
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through the week. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue 
between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands through at least Thu 
night along with moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is analyzed well northwest of the discussion area.
A ridge extends from the high center SSE to 20N and 115W. A 
tropical wave is south of the ridge near 129W, with a 1012 mb
broad low along the wave at 12N. Winds near this wave and low 
are moderate to fresh, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and the wave is also allowing for 
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds to exist from 13N to 
21N between 125W and 140W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. 
Gentle to moderate northeast to east trades are elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ along with 4 to 7 ft seas. South 
of the monsoon, winds are moderate and seas to 7 ft in southeast 
to south swell, to around 8 ft near 03.4S120W.

For the forecast, the tropical wave currently along 129W is
located in an environment where conditions are marginally 
conducive for development during the next day or two as the 
system moves westward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a low chance of 
tropical cyclone formation before it reaches unfavorable 
conditions by the early to middle portions of this week. 
Otherwise, the moderate to fresh northeast to east trades will 
change little north of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ through 
early today, then gradually shift to the western part of the 
area as the gradient between the tropical wave and the high 
pressure tightens. Guidance suggests that seas may reach around 
10 ft with the tighter gradient over the western part of the area
Mon through Tue night with increasing winds to strong speeds. 
Seas will linger around 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 
105W through the early part of this week.

$$
Lewitsky