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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



617 
AXPZ20 KNHC 281603
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1602 UTC Sat Mar 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N81W to 06N95W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N95W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 95W
and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is also evident within 90
nm north of the ITCZ between 130W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent ship observations indicate fresh winds off Baja California
Sur, with fresh to strong NW winds over the southern portion of
the Gulf of California and between Los Cabos and Mazatlan. These
winds are within a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
west of the area and low pressure over northern Mexico.
Concurrent altimeter satellite data indicated 8 to 10 ft seas in
the open waters off Baja California through the Revillagigedo
Islands. Generally light to gentle winds and slight seas are 
noted farther south.

This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh NW winds west of 
Baja California through Sun, except fresh to strong over the 
southern Gulf of California into late Sun. The high pressure will
build into Mon, supporting fresh to strong NW winds and building
seas off Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of 
California early in the week. The high weakens through mid week 
allowing winds to diminish. Gentle W to NW winds will dominate 
the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec through the 
period, except for a brief pulse of fresh gap winds late Sun into
Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

High pressure north of the western Caribbean will
maintain pulses of fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region and off Nicaragua tonight and Sun night, and
fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama tonight.
Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere across the offshore
waters through mid week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge extends west to east over the waters north of 20N.
This is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over much of the
area between 10N and 20N west of 120W, as noted in various recent
scatterometer satellite passes. Concurrent altimeter passes show
seas of 8 to 12 ft in this area, largely due to the trade wind
flow but also due to a mix of primarily northerly swell.
Favorable winds aloft and convergent flow in the lower levels of
the atmosphere are supporting scattered showers and a few 
thunderstorms along the ITCZ. Farther east, lighter winds and
slight seas are evident in the deep tropics east of 120W. A
sharp upper trough reaches from southern Mexico to roughly the
equator at 115W. Divergent flow aloft east of this feature is
supporting a few showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ between
95W and 100W. 

Little change is expected in this pattern through early next
week. The ridge will weaken into mid week, allowing winds and
seas to diminish west of 120W.

$$
Christensen