000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122007
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Nov 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW Swell Event: A series of NW swell sets will
continue to impact the northern waters through the next several
days. Currently, seas are 12 ft or greater W of 30N127W to
22N140W, with peak seas around 16 ft at 29N136W, and wave periods
of 14-16 seconds. Seas of 12 ft or greater will cover the waters
from W of 30N121W to 18N140W by early Fri morning. A reinforcing
and larger set of NW swell will arrive later Fri, with peak seas
around 22 ft near 30N138W by early Fri evening. By Sat afternoon,
this set with seas of 12 ft or greater will reach across the
waters W of 30N118W to 20N132W to 20N140W and peak seas of 22 ft
near 30N126W. Those seas will keep spreading SE, while yet
another set with seas of 12 ft or greater arrives to 30N140W by
late Sat night, spreading across the majority of the waters into
early next week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at
website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for more
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from over the border of Nicaragua and
Panama to the Gulf of Papagayo near 10.5N86W to 04N110W to
00N130W to 00N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed between 300 nm and 600 nm SE of the
monsoon trough between 77W and 90W, from 02S to 09N between 105W
and 128W, and from 06N to 15N between 128W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh northerly winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec supported 
by the pressure gradient between a high pressure system over the 
southern United States and lower pressures with the monsoon 
trough SE of the area. Seas in this waters are 4-7 ft. Meanwhile,
a weak pressure gradient is present in the remainder of the 
Mexican offshore waters with mainly moderate or weaker winds,
except locally fresh near Cabo Corrientes. Decaying NW swell is 
producing seas of 5-8 ft across much of the area, except for 
slight seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 
ft will pulse to strong at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through Fri night with locally rough seas. The next Tehuantepec 
gap wind event is forecast to begin early next week and continue 
through much of the next week. Winds may reach gale-force 
starting Tue night, if not sooner. Meanwhile, a cold front will 
move across the offshore waters of Baja California Fri, bringing 
fresh winds and a new batch of rough seas approaching 12 ft. 
Fresh to locally strong winds may also briefly impact the 
northern Gulf of California Fri. Then, a larger NW swell arriving
Sat will produce high seas to 20 ft. Rough seas will reach all 
the way to past 100W by early next week, while additional and 
reinforcing NW swell sets continue to arrive. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the area sustains
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft in 
the Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas are prevalent, except locally rough seas SW of 
the Galapagos Islands in merging long period SW and NW swells.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds may return to the 
Papagayo region by the end of the weekend into early next week, 
possibly reaching strong speeds by Mon night, then near gale-
force by Tue night. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds may pulse in the
Gulf of Panama early next week. Otherwise, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas in merging SW and NW swell will prevail, 
except locally rough SSW of the Galapagos Islands through Fri 
night. Looking ahead, a set of NW swell may build seas to 8 ft or
greater SSW of the Galapagos Islands by the middle of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a series of significant NW swell sets which will impact much of
the open waters.

A cold front continues to move quickly southeastward across the NW
waters, extending from 30N125W to 22N140W. The tight pressure 
gradient between high pressure centered well WNW of the area, and
the aforementioned front sustains fresh to strong NW-N winds 
behind the front to near 134W. Old and decaying NW swell 
supports seas of 7-9 ft out ahead of the front. In the western 
trade waters, a surface trough analyzed just W of 140W extending 
to the monsoon trough E of 140W is producing a large area of 
showers and isolated thunderstorms as described above. Moderate 
to fresh easterly trade winds and rough seas are found from 12N 
to 18 and west of 132W. Merging SW and NW swells supports 
combined seas of 7-10 ft across much of the waters S of 10 
between 94W and 133W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker
with moderate seas, except locally fresh S of the Equator and W 
of 105W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move across
the northern waters tonight into early Fri, bringing with it 
fresh to strong winds on either side of the front, and very large
seas in NW swell north of 20N through Fri. Another cold front 
will sweep across the area Fri into the weekend, bringing even 
larger reinforcing NW swell, possibly reaching 24 ft along 30N. 
This set of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the 
waters N of 05N and W of 110W by late Sat night, then covering 
all of the waters W of 105W. Yet another set of large swell will 
arrive Sun, with seas of 8 ft or greater across the entire waters
W of 105W by late Sun night, then across the waters W of 95W by
Tue evening. Meanwhile, the mixed swell over the equatorial 
waters will diminish by the weekend. Looking ahead, another cold 
front may move into the NW waters by the end of the weekend into 
early next week bringing a large area of fresh to strong winds 
behind it as high pressure builds in.

$$
Lewitsky