AXPZ20 KNHC 250952
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Aug 25 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Depression Ivo centered near 24.5N 117.0W at 0900 UTC
moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Ivo is expected to continue moving NNW through Sunday night and
then turn slowly NE and degenerate into a remnant low, and drift
S to SE. Convection continues to diminish tonight as the system
is moving over colder waters. Scattered light to moderate
convection is seen within 210 nm across the NE and 180 nm across
the SW semicircle. Overnight scatterometer and altimeter data
indicate that strongest winds and highest seas prevail across
the E half of Ivo, and will continue today. SW swell generated
by Ivo in the past 24 hours continues to impact the offshore
waters between Ivo and Baja California with seas of 8 to 11 ft,
currently between Cabo San Lucas and Punta Abreojos. This swell
will continue to generate large and dangerous surf along the
coasts and gradually shift north to Punta Eugenia today. Seas
will subside this evening through Monday as Ivo weakens further.
See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details.
A tropical wave across the western Caribbean along 82W extends
southward across Central America and into the tropical eastern
Pacific, moving west 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted north of 03N and east of 85W.
A tropical wave is along 111-112W from 03N to 15, moving W near
10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N
to 13N between 105W and 115W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO 08N78W TO 08.5N103W TO
06.5N118W, then resumes SW of Tropical Depression Ivo near
15N125W to low pressure near 14N129W to 12.5N140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 10N to 12N W of 133W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details about
Tropical Depression Ivo across the offshore waters of Baja
California. Hazardous sea conditions, mainly moderate to large
south to southwest swell will continue between the coast of Baja
California and Ivo through this afternoon as Ivo moves NNW
across the outer offshore waters. Dangerous surf conditions will
prevail til then. Elsewhere, strong winds associated with Ivo
remain 90 nm offshore of the Baja coast.
Moderate to fresh SE winds in the central and northern Gulf of
California will diminish today. A broad area of low pressure
will develop near Las Tres Marias Islands on Sun, supporting
moderate to fresh NW winds at the entrance and southern Gulf of
California through Mon night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A tropical wave crossing Central America tonight through Sunday
will continue to produce scattered moderate to strong convection
N of 02N E of 90W over the next few days. Locally higher winds
and waves can be expected with this activity.
Moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse at night across the Gulf
of Papagayo region through the middle of the upcoming week.
Gentle to moderate south to southwesterly winds will dominate
the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and The Galapagos
Islands through Thu along with small to moderate long period
cross-equatorial SW swell.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weak low pressure of 1010 mb near 14N129W is forecast to move
slowly westward today and gradually weaken to a tropical wave
before crossing 140W on Monday. Active convection associated
with the low will accompany it.
High pressure located just NW of the discussion area maintains a
broad ridge across the forecast waters north of 18N and west of
124W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail under the
influence of the ridge over the next couple days while the high
pressure slowly moves westward. Seas in excess of 8 ft
associated with Ivo will impact the forecast waters from 20N to
28N east of 120W today. However the aerial extent of these high
seas will shrink quickly as Ivo weakens over the next couple of