000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160317
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Feb 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Large NW Swell: Large NW swell continues to move
southeastward across the NW waters this evening, behind a cold 
front which extends from 30N125W to 22N140W. Seas of 12 ft and 
greater have reached as far S as 23N to the W of 131W this 
evening, with peak seas currently around 18 ft near 30N140W. 
Rough seas of 12 ft and greater will continue to propagate 
southeastward through tonight, and reach the waters N of 21N and
W of 122W by midday Mon, then begin to slowly subside, with seas
12 ft and greater N of 24N and W of 118W by early Tue. Seas will
then continue to subside to less than 12 ft by Tue evening, 
before new N swell enters the northern waters Wed morning, 
raising seas above 12 ft again Wed through Thu. Please refer to 
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 08.5N78.5W to 05N92W. The ITCZ extends 
from 05N92W to 03N111W to 03N130W to beyond 02N140W. No
significant convection is noted.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weakening high pressure of 1016 mb near 27N118.5W continues to
produce a broad ridge southeastward to offshore of Cabo
Corrientes, while elongated troughing remains just inland across
western Mexico. Mostly W-NW winds are across the offshore waters,
locally fresh from the southern Gulf of California to near Cabo
Corrientes. Seas are 6 to 8 ft offshore Baja California and W of
110W, and 3 to 6 ft elsewehre, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds will
develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight as a cold front
moves by to the N through the SW Gulf of America with high
pressure building behind it. Those winds will persist into early
Tue before diminishing. A cold front will approach Baja
California Mon with troughing ahead of it supporting fresh to
near gale-force SW winds in the northern Gulf of California by
early Mon through early Tue, with similar winds early Wed as the
actual front shifts by. Fresh to strong SW-W winds offshore Baja
California N of Punta Eugenia will be ahead of the front late Mon
night, diminishing by early Tue. High pressure will build in
across the waters offshore Baja California in the wake of the
front, with fresh to locally strong winds nearshore Baja
California to near Cabo Corrientes by mid-week. Locally rough
swell off Baja California will subside tonight, with new rough to
very rough NW swell moving in early Mon through Wed, getting
reinforced Wed night through the end of the week.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo.
Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft offshore
Colombia, and mainly 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds and moderate seas will
persist across the Papagayo region through tonight, then pulse to
fresh to strong starting early Mon as high pressure builds across
Central America. Those winds will continue to pulse through at
least early Thu, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to
locally fresh N-NE winds will pulse from the Gulf of Panama to
near the Azuero Peninsula through mid-week. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change little 
through the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
Significant Very Rough NW Swell forecast for the NW waters.

A cold front continues to move southeastward over the NW waters,
extending from 30N125W to 22N140W. Fresh to strong NW-N winds 
and building seas are behind the front, and are just below gale 
force across the far NW waters, with gales N of 30N. Weak and 
broad high pressure prevails ahead of the front. Moderate to 
locally fresh trades are from 07N to 16N between 110W and 140W 
with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in 
fading NW to N swell N of the ITCZ to the front and W of 115W, 
and 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, other than the Significant Large NW Swell 
entering the NW waters, the cold front with fresh to strong winds
behind it will reach from 30N121W to 17N140W Mon morning, and 
from near Punta Eugenia to 14N130W by early Tue. Winds N of 20N 
behind the front will gradually diminish from W to E Mon night
through Tue as the front weakens and continues moving eastward,
before gradually dissipating. High pressure will build in the 
wake of the front Tue through Thu as a low to middle-level
disturbance develops S of 20N and near 140W. This scenario will
produce a broad fresh to strong trades N of the ITCZ to 24N and 
W of 120W late Tue through early Fri, Expect active showers and 
thunderstorms, with rough to very rough seas in NW swell to 
accompany these increasing trades.

$$
Lewitsky