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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 250952

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Aug 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0845 UTC. 


Tropical Depression Ivo centered near 24.5N 117.0W at 0900 UTC 
moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. 
Ivo is expected to continue moving NNW through Sunday night and 
then turn slowly NE and degenerate into a remnant low, and drift 
S to SE. Convection continues to diminish tonight as the system 
is moving over colder waters. Scattered light to moderate 
convection is seen within 210 nm across the NE and 180 nm across 
the SW semicircle. Overnight scatterometer and altimeter data 
indicate that strongest winds and highest seas prevail across 
the E half of Ivo, and will continue today. SW swell generated 
by Ivo in the past 24 hours continues to impact the offshore 
waters between Ivo and Baja California with seas of 8 to 11 ft, 
currently between Cabo San Lucas and Punta Abreojos. This swell 
will continue to generate large and dangerous surf along the 
coasts and gradually shift north to Punta Eugenia today. Seas 
will subside this evening through Monday as Ivo weakens further. 
See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. 


A tropical wave across the western Caribbean along 82W extends 
southward across Central America and into the tropical eastern 
Pacific, moving west 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted north of 03N and east of 85W.

A tropical wave is along 111-112W from 03N to 15, moving W near 
10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N 
to 13N between 105W and 115W.


The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO 08N78W TO 08.5N103W TO 
06.5N118W, then resumes SW of Tropical Depression Ivo near 
15N125W to low pressure near 14N129W to 12.5N140W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is from 10N to 12N W of 133W.


Please see the Special Features section above for details about 
Tropical Depression Ivo across the offshore waters of Baja 
California. Hazardous sea conditions, mainly moderate to large 
south to southwest swell will continue between the coast of Baja 
California and Ivo through this afternoon as Ivo moves NNW 
across the outer offshore waters. Dangerous surf conditions will 
prevail til then. Elsewhere, strong winds associated with Ivo 
remain 90 nm offshore of the Baja coast.

Moderate to fresh SE winds in the central and northern Gulf of 
California will diminish today. A broad area of low pressure 
will develop near Las Tres Marias Islands on Sun, supporting 
moderate to fresh NW winds at the entrance and southern Gulf of 
California through Mon night.


A tropical wave crossing Central America tonight through Sunday 
will continue to produce scattered moderate to strong convection 
N of 02N E of 90W over the next few days. Locally higher winds 
and waves can be expected with this activity.

Moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse at night across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region through the middle of the upcoming week. 
Gentle to moderate south to southwesterly winds will dominate 
the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and The Galapagos 
Islands through Thu along with small to moderate long period 
cross-equatorial SW swell. 


A weak low pressure of 1010 mb near 14N129W is forecast to move 
slowly westward today and gradually weaken to a tropical wave 
before crossing 140W on Monday. Active convection associated 
with the low will accompany it.

High pressure located just NW of the discussion area maintains a 
broad ridge across the forecast waters north of 18N and west of 
124W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail under the 
influence of the ridge over the next couple days while the high 
pressure slowly moves westward. Seas in excess of 8 ft 
associated with Ivo will impact the forecast waters from 20N to 
28N east of 120W today. However the aerial extent of these high 
seas will shrink quickly as Ivo weakens over the next couple of